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Saeed, Naima
(2023).
Application of innovative forecasting methods to predict container freight rates.
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Chhetri, Prem; Ombati, Thomas; Shahrom, Melissa; Tsui, Kan & Saeed, Naima
(2023).
Belt and Road Initiative in the African context: questions on regional connectivity and inclusive development.
The Journal of International Logistics and Trade (JILT).
ISSN 1738-2122.
21(4),
s. 198–203.
doi:
10.1108/JILT-11-2023-070.
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Saeed, Naima
(2023).
Arctic Shipping Insurance from the Industry Perspective.
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Saeed, Naima & Ashraf, Hasan
(2023).
A Framework for a Sustainable and Resilient Cruise Shipping.
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Saeed, Naima
(2023).
Innovative forecasting techniques to improve predicting accuracy.
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Saeed, Naima
(2023).
International Teaching Experience, difference is learning approaches.
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Saeed, Naima
(2023).
An overview of industry experience on Arctic shipping insurance.
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Trakoonsanti, Lamphai; Chhetri, Prem; Shahparvari, Shahrooz; Singh, Amanpreet & Saeed, Naima
(2023).
Modelling Global Patterns, Characteristics and Factors of Port Lapse Time.
Vis sammendrag
This paper aims to identify, analyse and model the effect of port-specific factors on port lapse time. Factors are extracted from the Automatic Identification System (AIS) data, and port and country-level data to represent port dynamics and complex vessel flow networks. The structural equation modelling (SEM) is employed to model the effect of these factors on port lapse time - measured as deviation from the average of port time. The results indicate that better quality port infrastructure and suitable location conditions are more likely to improve port services which in turn contribute to a reduction in port lapse time. Quality of port infrastructure, location conditions and port network connectivity are also found to have a positive impact on port dynamic flow. The results of the mediation effect indicate that port network connectivity and port dynamic flow partially mediates the relationship between location conditions and port lapse time. The findings may contribute to the development of port strategies to not only help improve port operational efficiency to better manage port congestion/delay but also a long-term strategic investment in port infrastructure development to enhance inter-port connectivity.
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Saeed, Naima
(2022).
Panel Data Analysis.
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Saeed, Naima
(2022).
Reconfiguring Global Supply Chain Management and Network due to COVID-19 Pandemic
.
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Saeed, Naima
(2022).
Port competitiveness and hinterland transport strategies: a case study of South Africa
.
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Saeed, Naima
(2022).
The role of hinterland transport strategies in port management.
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Saeed, Naima; Nguyen, Su; Cullinane, Kevin; Gekara, Victor & Chhetri, Prem
(2021).
Did the COVID-19 pandemic disrupt container freight rate trends? Evidence from six of the main shipping routes.
The Maritime Economist (ME-MAG).
ISSN 2408-0683.
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Saeed, Naima
(2021).
Green/Sustainable Supply Chains.
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Saeed, Naima; Abbasi, Babak; Fadaki, Masih; Kokshagina, Olga & Chhetri, Prem
(2021).
A Model for COVID-19 Vaccine Allocations: A Case Study in Australia.
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Abbasi, Babak; Fadaki, Masih; Kokshagina, Olga; Saeed, Naima & Chhetri, Prem
(2021).
Vaccine roll-out: 3 key factors for success.
Vis sammendrag
This study developed a mathematical model to explore the efficient allocations and distributions of the COVID-19 vaccine. We took the state of Victoria, Australia, as a case study and tested different scenarios for vaccine distributions. Our analysis showed three key factors for success: capacity, transshipment of vaccines between medical centers, and suitable vaccine pack size. Our model helps decision-makers strike a balance between the cost of building extra capacity to try to achieve population vaccination in a given time scale or accepting a less costly approach that takes more time.
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Saeed, Naima; Nguyen, Su; Cullinane, Kevin; Gekara, Victor & Chhetri, Prem
(2021).
Impact of COVID-19 and Suez Canal blockage on forecasting container freight rates.
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Saeed, Naima
(2021).
A review of literature on green supply chain management: current trends and future directions
.
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Saeed, Naima; Nguyen, Su; Chhetri, Prem & Alahakoon, Damminda
(2020).
Analysis of the evolving maritime connectivity network structure using machine learning.
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Saeed, Naima & Kodzi, Emmanuel
(2020).
Decision support model for increasing the attractiveness of a cruise port for cargo business
.
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Saeed, Naima & Cullinane, Kevin
(2020).
Identifying the characteristics of maritime trading partners on the basis of bilateral shipping connectivity: A cluster analysis.
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Saeed, Naima
(2020).
A link between maritime connectivity, port competitiveness, and economic growth
.
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Saeed, Naima & Ng, Adolf K.Y
(2020).
Opportunities and challenges of the opening of the Arctic Ocean for Norway.
I Ng, Adolf K.Y; Monios, Jason & Jiang, Changmin (Red.),
Maritime Transport and Regional Sustainability.
Elsevier.
ISSN 978-0-12-819134-7.
s. 209–221.
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Saeed, Naima; Hoff, Arild & Larsen, Odd I
(2019).
The effect of the development of port’s inland hinterland transport technologies on the export of perishable products from South Africa.
Vis sammendrag
This paper aims to analyze the impact of the development of a port’s inland hinterland transport technologies when exporting perishable products from the Republic of South Africa. The development of transport technologies is reflected in terms of a lower cost and higher frequency of inland transport. The Republic of South Africa has an extensive transport network. Its production centres are connected by road and rail to the leading trade ports. Despite a well-developed transport network, its traders face delays caused by domestic transportation. To investigate the interplay between export products, transport and market access for exporters, a linear programming model is presented in this paper. It is assumed that initially, two modes of transport are available for transportation of the export product from the farm to the "market." The two modes are trucks and railway, and analysis is extended by including intermodal transportation as a combination of railway and road. The model is solved with different numeric values for the parameters, to understand the roles of transport technologies, access improvements and the interplay between them.The results of the analysis show that the optimal strategy is to improve the rail infrastructure to offer more frequent rail services from the market to the port of Cape Town.
-
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Saeed, Naima
(2018).
Can port efficiency become a drawcard for business development?
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Saeed, Naima
(2018).
Maritime Transport in Africa: an Agenda for Future Research.
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Saeed, Naima; Sødal, Sigbjørn & Hoffmann, Jan
(2018).
Liner shipping connectivity and its impact on bilateral trade flow of South Africa: A Quasi-Maximum Likelihood (QML) estimation of panel data with random effects.
Vis sammendrag
This paper analyses the impact of the liner shipping bilateral connectivity on bilateral trade flow of South Africa with the rest of the world. The bilateral connectivity is measured by way of five components that are the number of transshipments, the number of common direct connections, the geometric mean of the number of direct connections, the level of competition on services, and the size of the largest ships on the weakest route between South Africa and its trading partner. In addition to these five variables, the data for real income of South Africa and the real income of its 148 trading partners was collected from 2006-2016. This study applies the Quasi-Maximum Likelihood (QML) method to estimate the dynamic panel data with random effect. The results show that the real income of South Africa, the real income of its trading partners, the number of common direct connections, and the level of competition on services have a positive, while the number of transshipments has a negative and significant effect on bilateral trade flow of South Africa.
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Munim, Ziaul Haque; Saeed, Naima; Ng, Adolf K. Y. & Duru, Okan
(2018).
Evaluation and selection of transshipment port using analytic network process approach.
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Saeed, Naima
(2018).
Effect of macroeconomic variables on Norway's bilateral trade flow via maritime and other transport modes to the UK.
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Saeed, Naima
(2018).
An overview of my previous research.
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Saeed, Naima
(2017).
Effect of Macroeconomic Variables on Norway’s Bilateral Maritime Trade Flow to Its Major Trading Partners
.
Vis sammendrag
The objective of this paper is to analyze the effect of macroeconomic variables such as real exchange rate, exchange-rate volatility and real income of six major trading partners (Denmark, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Sweden, and the UK) on Norway’s bilateral maritime trade flow. Data was collected from the first quarter of 1999 until the second quarter of 2017 to estimate the autoregressive distributed lag models (ARDLs). The first model considered trade volume (import and export) via only maritime transport, while the second model included trade volume via modes other than maritime transport. Empirical validity of the Marshall-Lerner condition is tested to see whether devaluation of the real exchange rate improves maritime trade balance in the long term. In addition to the long-run relationship among variables, short term effects are also evaluated to see whether the adjustment is characterized by the so-called J-curve effect, which shows that the trade balance initially deteriorates in response to devaluations, or a reversed L-curve effect, under which the short-run adjustment is negligible.
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Saeed, Naima
(2017).
An analysis of effect of macroeconomic variables on Norway's export to the UK via different modes of transportation.
Vis sammendrag
The objective of this paper is to analyze the effect of real income, real exchange rate and exchange-rate volatility on Norway's export to the UK via different modes of transportation. The export goods are grouped by levels of processing (raw materials, semi-finished and finished products) under the UN Standard International Trade Classification (SITC). Data was collected from 1999: Q1 until 2015: Q4 for each type of export products and each mode of transportation, from Norway to the UK, to estimate the autoregressive distributed lag models (ARDLs). In this study, total thirty-six ARDL models (six types of goods and six modes of transportation) were estimated. The results indicate that real income of the UK is the main influencer on Norway's export to the UK via all modes of transportation. Real exchange rate and exchange-rate volatility also have significant effects in most of the cases. The interesting aspect is variations in signs of these variables for different modes. For instance, the real income of the UK has a negative and significant effect on export of food to the UK via maritime transportation, but it has a positive and significant effect on export of food via truck and railway. It means with the increase in real income of the UK, the demand for maritime transportation will decrease while the demand for truck and railway will increase to export food from Norway to the UK.
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Munim, Ziaul Haque; Saeed, Naima & Larsen, Odd I
(2017).
‘Tool port’ to ‘landlord port’: A game theory approach to analyse gains from governance model transformation.
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Munim, Ziaul Haque; Saeed, Naima & Qin, Feifei
(2017).
Benchmarking Chinese port container terminal efficiency: Exploring key efficiency drivers.
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Saeed, Naima
(2017).
Impact of Exchange-Rate Volatility and Economic Growth on Norway’s Maritime Export to its Major Trading Partners
.
Vis sammendrag
This paper’s objective is to analyze the impact of real exchange rate, exchange-rate volatility and real income of six major trading partners (Denmark, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Sweden, and the UK) on Norway’s maritime export. Data was collected from the first quarter of 1999 until the fourth quarter of 2015 to estimate the autoregressive distributed lag models (ARDLs). The first model considered export volume via only maritime transport, while the second model included export volume via modes other than maritime transport. The results of the first model show that there was no long-run stable relationship between variables in the cases of France and the Netherlands. However, the results of the second model only showed a long-run stable relationship among variables in the cases of Denmark and the UK. The analysis revealed that the real income of the trading partners is the major determinant of Norway’s export flow via maritime and other modes of transportation. The effects of these economic variables vary in the short and long terms for all trading partners.
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Munim, Ziaul Haque & Saeed, Naima
(2017).
‘Tool Port’ to ‘Landlord Port’: Gains From Governance Model Transformation.
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Saeed, Naima; Song, Dong-Wook & Andersen, Otto
(2016).
Governance Mode for Port Congestion Mitigation: A Transaction Cost Perspective.
Vis sammendrag
The paper aims to discuss a governance strategy that stakeholders in the maritime (i.e.,shipping and ports) and its associated (e.g., logistics service providers) sector can adopt in order to mitigate congestion at ports. In a situation where no congestion occurs at a port, port and/or terminal operators are better informed of the present and future demand from shipping lines and of external factors that may cause congestion; the operators are also expected to enable to adapt their operating capacity as per changes in demand. Moreover, if those stakeholders in the sector are assumed to have a single goal for profit maximization, it is
likely that there exists a market governance structure leading to no port congestion. Having those points in mind, this paper proposes a transaction-cost analytical framework to discuss about under which circumstances governance modes, such as bilateral governance and vertical integration, are to be implemented to better tackle the congestion problem at ports. A transaction cost analysis (TCA) is utilized to examine the port-congestion mitigation problem
from a governance perspective. A theoretical analysis conducted for this paper reveals that in order to release port congestion, some players ought to make a specific investment. This line of analysis will certainly provide all the stakeholders engaged (particularly, a public policymaker) a useful insight into understanding the congestion matter from a governance perspective.
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Munim, Ziaul Haque & Saeed, Naima
(2016).
Seaport competitiveness research: A bibliometric citation meta-analysis.
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Saeed, Naima; Song, Dong-Wook & Andersen, Otto
(2016).
Understanding port congestion as a governance issue: a transaction cost perspective.
Vis sammendrag
Transaction cost analysis (TCA) has been applied in a wide range of academic disciplines including economics, marketing, sociology, organization theory, and business strategy. Literature in maritime transport has had a limited exposure to this versatile theoretical framework. The objective of the paper is to discuss a governance strategy that various players within the maritime (i.e., shipping and port) and its associated (e.g., logistics service providers) sector can adopt in order to mitigate congestion at ports. We use TCA to discuss the circumstances under which governance modes, such as bilateral governance and vertical integration, should be used to increase efficiency within a maritime supply chain. Implications for theoretical development and practical application are discussed in the context of the recent development in the maritime sector.
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Saeed, Naima & Larsen, Odd I
(2014).
Application of queuing methodology to analyze congestion at the Manila International Container Terminal.
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Saeed, Naima & Aaby, Bernt Christoffer
(2013).
An analysis of factors contributing as selection criteria for users of European container terminals.
Vis sammendrag
This paper examines the selection criteria for container shipping lines when choosing European container terminals. The purpose of the study is to determine the factors that are crucial for shipping lines when choosing European container terminals. Data has been collected via a questionnaire given to shipping lines calling at the Port of Rotterdam, the Port of Antwerp, and the Port of Hamburg, which are the main container hubs in Europe (measured by the number of TEUs handled annually). Descriptive statistics reveal that loading/discharging rate, handling charges, and service quality are the main attributes that influence port selection. The least important selection factors are personal contacts, investments by shipping lines, and value-added activities. The analysis also shows that hinterland connections are more important than value-added activities. This suggests that ports should focus more on developing good hinterland connections than on providing value-added activities. Factor analysis of the aggregate data is used to determine whether the 13 attributes could be partitioned into fewer, more meaningful factors. According to the results, 12 variables are loaded into two factors, which also seem to contain distinct elements: Factor 1 contains “Ports attributes” and Factor 2 contains the variables related to “Formal and informal relationships between ports and shipping lines.” This study will be useful for port authorities and terminal operators wishing to improve the efficiency and productivity of their port according to the requirements of their customers (that is, shipping lines).
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Kaselimi, Evangelia N.; Notteboom, Theo E. & Saeed, Naima
(2012).
Should We Concession One Large Container Terminal or Two Smaller Ones? : A Game Theoretical Approach with Application to Valparaiso Port.
I Gillen, David (Red.),
5th ALRT Asian Logistics Roundtable & Conference in Vancouver BC, Canada : Papers and presentations.
ALRT.
s. 1–29.
Vis sammendrag
During the pre-bidding phase of a terminal awarding procedure, landlord port authorities are sometimes confronted with the decision whether to split an available port site into two or more sections to be concessioned separately. The strategic decision behind is the concessioning of the terminal to the same terminal operator or to different ones. A recent case includes the port of Brisbane in Australia. The port authority of Valparaiso in Chile is now facing a similar challenge. The port authority of Valparaiso concessioned terminal 1 to a private operator and is considering whether it should concession the second site to the same terminal operator or, alternatively, opt for a competitive bidding procedure to attract another terminal operator, thereby promoting intra-port competition. The port is already facing inter-port competition from neighbouring port San Antonio which handles about the same container volume as port of Valparaiso.
In this paper, a game theoretical model is developed in order to shed light on the best option for the port authority of Valparaiso. For this purpose, a non-cooperative two-stage game is developed that models intra-port in and inter-port competition between the port of Valparaiso and San Antonio. In the first stage, the port authority of Valparaiso decides on the way it is going to subdivide its respective port infrastructure. In the second stage, competition between the terminals of the two ports is modelled as a Bertrand game. The game is solved backwards. This paper builds further on earlier work of the authors with respect to the application of game theory to inter-port and intra-port competition by providing a real-life application to Chilean ports.
Keywords: container terminals, competition, concessions, game theory, Chile.
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Hermansen, Olav & Omtalt person: Saeed, Naima
(2011).
Konkurranse og samarbeid mellom containerterminaler – hvem vinner?
Logistikk & Ledelse.
ISSN 1501-5890.
24(3),
s. 46–47.
Vis sammendrag
I internasjonale forsyningskjeder kan effektiviteten til havneterminaler utgjøre en viktig forskjell. I sin doktorgradsavhandling ved Høgskolen i Molde har Naima Saeed tatt opp dette spørsmålet – ved hjelp av en til nå uvanlig tilnærming innen logistikkfaget.
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Saeed, Naima & Larsen, Odd I.
(2011).
Application of Stackelberg model : an analysis of advantage of moving first for container terminals in Pakistan.
Vis sammendrag
The objective of this paper is to do a comparison between two strategies i.e. Bertrand and Stackelberg game, played by four terminals in two ports of Pakistan. Results show that in a Bertrand game one container terminal (KIC), despite charging higher price, captures higher market share compared to its competitors. A comparison of this result with real data shows that same is the situation in reality in two ports of Pakistan. Due to the difference in market shares and costs among container terminals we have also analyzed the leader-follower strategy with four sub-cases. Results reveal that the leader can charge a monopolist price. However, it captures very high market share only when it has some natural advantages over its competitors. Moreover, there is a possibility that the leader is wrong in making an assumption that the others will adopt his price. Thus we may conclude that the Bertrand game in prices is probably the only game in prices that consistently assumes rational and fully informed players.
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Kaselimi, Evangelia N.; Notteboom, Theo E. & Saeed, Naima
(2011).
A game theoretical approach to the inter-relation between terminal scale and port competition.
Vis sammendrag
From the landlord port authorities' point of view, the strategic question on the splitting of an available site into two or more sections to be concessioned to terminal operators is a realistic one that is troubling them already in the pre bidding phase. But even if not in the pre bidding phase, port authorities have the chance later via concession contracts to control the terminal scale. In addition, the division of the aggregate market size by efficient scaled terminals indicates the maximum number of technologically efficient terminals that the market can sustain. A terminal scale relative close to the market size is a barrier to entry that hinders intra but also inter port competition. On the other hand, a terminal scale relative smaller to the market size would in theory allow the introduction of more terminals. In this paper, a game theory model is introduced to study the scale of container terminals in combination with the market size in order to examine how they affect terminal competition. The starting point is the landlord port management system with long-term concessions agreements shaping the formal relationships between the port authority (who own the land) and the private terminal operators (who use the land for terminal activities). The research is based on the empirical point of view that suggests that the scale decisions for a container terminal are taken before terminals arrive on the market, in the pre-bidding phase of a concession agreement while later in the operational phase the price decisions are taken. Taking this into account and based on the assumption that the capacity of the terminals is fixed and consequently the cost curves of the terminals are U-shaped, the Kreps and Scheinkman (1983) suggestion is rejected and a two-stage game theoretic model is developed. The aim of the model is to analyse the interrelation between economics of scale and intra-port competition and its effect on port authorities concessioning decisions. The model is illustrated by referring to a number of hypothetical cases of terminal competition in a realistic setting.
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Saeed, Naima
(2011).
Cooperation among freight forwarders : mode choice and intermodal freight transport.
Vis sammendrag
The freight forwarder has always played an important role in commerce and
international carriage of goods. Traditionally the freight forwarder was the link
between the owner of the goods and the carrier, and provided forwarding or clearing
services. The forwarder acted as the agent for the owner of the cargo or the carrier.
However, in more recent years the freight forwarder has moved onto a new role in
not only assisting the parties to get the goods transported, but in "undertaking" to
get the goods transported by his own means of transport (truck/train/ship) or
making arrangements with other transport providers. In this role the freight
forwarder act as a principal and not as an agent and is known by many names e.g. a
NVOCC (Non-vessel Owning Common Carrier), an MTO (Multi-modal Transport
Operator) including both Vessel Operating Multimodal Transport Operators (VO-
MTOs) and Non-Vessel Operating Multimodal Transport Operators (NVO-MTOs), a
logistics service provider, etc. In the ongoing globalization process large
international freight forwarding companies have a competitive advantage compared
to small companies due to their wider portfolio of disposable resources and a market
power position. The remedy for the medium- and small-sized carrier business is to
establish coalitions in order to extend their resource portfolio and reinforce their
market positions (Krajewska and Kopfer, 2006). Moreover, the structure of large
freight forwarding companies frequently assumes autonomously operating
subsidiaries that should, however, cooperate in order to maximize the overall
business profit. The purpose of the cooperation of freight forwarders entities is to
find equilibrium between the demanded and the available transport resources
within several carrier entities by interchanging customer requests (Kopfer and
Pankratz, 1999). Following three players are defined in this paper: 1. A freight
forwarder with his own means of land transport (e.g. truck). 2. A freight forwarderwith his own ship. In the literature this player is known as VO-MTO. VO-MTOs are
ship-owners who have extended their services beyond carrying the cargo from port
to port to include carriage over land and even by air. They may or may not own the
other means of transport (by road, rail or air). If they do not, they arrange for these
types of transport by subcontracting with such carriers. 3. A freight forwarder
without his own means of transport but he will select the mode of transport on the
behalf of his customer. Now different combinations of coalitions are possible in this
situation: For instance, if player 1 and 2 will cooperate, this will result in the
situation of intermodal freight transportation. Player 3 can cooperate with player 1
or with player 2; in this case this will be the mode choice. And last possibility is that
all these three players will cooperate. The objective of this paper is to analyze the
different combinations of coalitions and expected benefits associated with these
coalitions from both customers and freight forwarders' point of view. For this
purpose we will use the Bertrand model developed by Saeed and Larsen (2010).
References Kopfer, H. and Pankratz, G. (1999). Das Groupage-Problem
kooperierender Verkehrstrager. Oper Res Proc, 1998: 453-462, Springer, Berlin
Heidelberg, New York. Krajewska, M.N. and Kopfer, H. (2006). Collaborating freight
forwarding enterprises: Request allocation and profit sharing. OR Spectrum, 28: 301-
317. Saeed, N. and Larsen, O.I. (2010) An application of cooperative game among
container terminals of one port, European Journal of Operational Research 203:393-403.
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Saeed, Naima & Larsen, Odd I.
(2009).
Effect of type of concession contract on game outcome among container terminals.
I ., Ukjent (Red.),
Conference Proceedings (USB).
International Association of Maritime Economists.
Vis sammendrag
Pakistan has three ports with container terminals. Karachi Port has three terminals, while the other two have one terminal each. With the exception of one terminal in Karachi Port, these terminals are privately operated and the port authorities have the role of "landlord". The terminals compete for traffic and the outcome can be considered as the result of a game. The objective of this paper is to analyse the effect of the type of contract between the landlord and the terminal on the outcome of this game that involves five container terminals, competing with each other in three ports of Pakistan. These ports function as "landlords", and hence have signed a "concession contract" with their private container terminals. However, the features of the contracts are different for each port. We have analysed four cases in this paper. The first case is the present situation in which we treat the competition between terminals as a Bertrand game where each terminal non-cooperatively determines the charge for container handling and pays fees according to the contract to port authorities. The Bertrand model seems to represent to a satisfactory degree the market shares and handling fees observed. Game outcome is extended further to determine the level of same fixed and percentage fee for private terminals at Karachi Port, instead of a differentiated fee, that will give the same profit to Karachi Port Authority. Results show that the Nash equilibrium prices and profit of two private terminals are low in the case of same percentage fee as compared to the fixed fee. Furthermore, the situation is analysed to see the effect of the addition of one more player on game outcome. New Nash equilibrium results indicate that this results in low prices and profit for all terminals. The game's theoretic framework is then extended to the analysis of the strategic decision faced by port authorities with respect to trade-off between unit fees and rent in the third case. An optimal concession contract is obtained which is feasible for both parties with high unit fees and low annual rent.
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Saeed, Naima & Larsen, Odd I.
(2009).
Effect of type of concession contract on game outcome among container terminals.
-
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Saeed, Naima & Larsen, Odd I.
(2008).
Game theoretical analysis of competition between container terminals in Pakistan.
Vis sammendrag
The objective of this paper is to analyze competition between four terminals in two ports of Pakistan. The first port has 2 terminals that are privately operated and one terminal operated by the Port Authority while the second port has only one privately operated terminal. For the privately operated terminals, the Port Authorities has the function of a "landlord" with income from rents and unit fees on containers handled. Competition is initially treated as a Bertrand game where each terminal independently determines the fee for container handling. This is the present situation and the Bertrand model seems to give to a satisfactory approximation to market shares and handling fees observed. The game theoretic framework is then extended to analyze of the strategic decision faced by Port authorities with respect to trade-off between unit fees and rent. Finally we analyze the possible outcome of collusions between terminals in the first port. The results indicate that the combined profit of the 3 terminals will increase, but the main "winner" is the outsider located in the second port.
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Saeed, Naima & Larsen, Odd I.
(2008).
Competition between two ports : from game theory perspective.
I Petrosjan, Leon A. & Zenkevich, Nikolay A. (Red.),
The Second International Conference Game Theory and Management : GTM2008, June 26-27, 2008, St. Petersburg, Russia : Abstracts.
Graduate School of Management. St. Petersburg University.
s. 189–191.
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Saeed, Naima & Larsen, Odd I.
(2008).
Competition between two ports : from game theory perspective.
Vis sammendrag
This paper presents the analysis of competition between four terminals in two ports in Pakistan. The first port has 2 terminals that are privately operated and one terminal operated by the Port Authority, while the second port has only one privately operated terminal. For the privately operated terminals, the Port Authorities has the function of a 'landlord' with income from rents and unit fees on containers handled. Competition is initially treated as a Bertrand game where each terminal independently determines the fee for container handling. This is the present situation and the Bertrand model seems to represent to a satisfactory degree the market shares and handling fees observed. The game theoretic framework is then extended to analysis of the strategic decision faced by port authorities with respect to the trade-off between unit fees and rent. Finally, we analyse the possible outcome of collusions between terminals in the first port. The results indicate that the combined profit of the 3 terminals will increase, but the main 'winner' is the outsider located in the second port.
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Baharmand, Hossein; Balcik, Burcu; Boey, Lise; Decouttere, Catherine; Fossli, Håvard & Kjøndal, Jan Ove
[Vis alle 9 forfattere av denne artikkelen]
(2022).
Project report #3: Vaccine supply chain decision support system.
Universitetet i Agder.
ISSN 978-82-8427-060-9.
Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
Vis sammendrag
The project "COVID-19 Network Technology-based Responsive Action" (CONTRA) started in June 2020. The CONTRA project initially aimed to develop a decision support system to support public health responders to distribute the COVID-19 vaccine effectively, efficiently, sustainably, and fairly. However, over the course of the project, also shown in this report, we found two important factors. First, the central allocation problem is the core of vaccine distribution inside countries: allocating different vaccines from national storage point to municipalities and regions. Second, optimizing the central vaccine allocation only based on the equity criterion could have two advantages. (a) It helps to avoid unnecessary trade-offs between several objectives that could prolong the decision-making process. (b) Based on observations that show the same behavior of effectiveness and equity measures for the central allocation problem, focusing on either of them would guarantee the other. This report summarizes the actions and results in the project, as of work package (WP) WP 3 in the period June - December 2021. In WP3, we design the decision support dashboard based on the mathematical model that we developed in WP2. We are grateful to the professionals at public health authorities and partnered businesses who have contributed with their time and expertise, and look forward to further collaboration. The project is funded by the Research Council of Norway (agreement No. 312773).
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Baharmand, Hossein; Balcik, Burcu; Decouttere, Catherine; Phillips, Ross Owen; Saeed, Naima & Vandaele, Nico
(2020).
CONTRA Project report #1: Requirements identification and system mapping
.
Universitetet i Agder.
ISSN 978-82-8427-006-7.
Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
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The research project “COVID-19 Network Technology-based Responsive Action” (CONTRA), funded by the Research Council of Norway, commenced in June 2020. The CONTRA project develops a decision support system (DSS) based on mathematical modeling and stochastic optimization, and machine learning tools for designing a robust COVID-19 vaccine distribution network. The project follows two main objectives within two phases. In response to the on-going COVID-19 outbreak, rapid analyses will provide actionable advice to public health authorities in Norway regarding vaccine distribution and delivery to responders. This phase involved a systematic study of vaccine distribution system actors in Norway and their decision-making needs. Based on such insights, the project will develop a DSS based on mathematical models to support designing the vaccine distribution network. The DSS should contribute to the effectiveness, efficiency, equity, and sustainability of the COVID-19 vaccine distribution. The proposed solution will also support vaccine distribution in future pandemics.
The report describes the results of the first work package (WP) in the CONTRA project. The WP1 aims to identify the key actors in the vaccine distribution network in Norway, map their relation to each other, and distinguish critical decisions in the system. Moreover, the report presents an overview of related research on vaccine distribution networks, related decision support systems, and the progress in the literature about the COVID-19 pandemic. Through preliminary interviews, document review, and a workshop with multiple representatives from Norwegian public health authorities, the current vaccine distribution system is analyzed, and its actors have been mapped. This system map is the basis for further discussion both within the project team and with stakeholders. It should be noted that this map will change throughout the project due to the additional insights from other validation opportunities and the fact that the COVID-19 context is dynamic and is changing permanently. However, the system map has served as a basis for the problem definition in the CONTRA project.
Based on our findings from the stakeholder workshop and system mapping, we have decided to focus on defining and studying the central vaccine allocation problem (CVAP), which is faced by Public Health Institute (FHI). As such, the CONTRA will investigate the problem of determining the amount of each vaccine to be shipped to every municipality. CVAP is challenged by the scarce amount of vaccines, the current immunization level, population, and priority groups in each municipality. In our project, CVAP will be formulated as a multi-objective resource allocation problem. Specifically, we will define and formulate objectives related to the following performance dimensions: efficacy (e.g., total coverage, coverage per priority group, etc.), efficiency and sustainability (e.g., logistics costs, waste), and fairness (e.g., distribution of efficacy among municipalities).
The next step in the project will be to validate the problem definition and develop the mathematical model (second work package). Moreover, two individual reports for the actors map and system map will be published in the upcoming months by project partners.
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Bråthen, Svein; Saeed, Naima; Sunde, Øyvind; Husdal, Jan; Jensen, Arne & Sorkina, Edith
(2012).
Customer and agent initiated intermodal transport chains : final report to the NRC/SMARTRANS program for the Norwegian part of NCR project no 188387.
Møreforsking Molde AS.
ISSN 978-82-7830-166-1.
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This report concludes the Norwegian part of the ERA‐NET project CA‐CHAINS (NCR project number 188387).
Gothenburg University (UiG, The Logistics and Transport Research Group (LTRG) within the Department of
Business Administration at the school of Business, Economics and Law) has been the lead partner in this
project. Molde University College has been responsible for the Norwegian part. The main objective with this
part of the project has been to increase knowledge and understanding of the initiation and development of
customer and agent initiated intermodal transport chains.
Many of the findings are supported by earlier research; higher volumes and transport supply chain alignment
are key success factors. The public sector has a role in coordinating and aligning the transport supply chain
(coordination between ports, railway and terminal capacity and utilization, road network design and
connectivity), to act as moderators where coordination needs are evident and to set correct prices and charges
for use of various types of energy, and of transport infrastructure. But there are also likely areas of
improvement for the transport users and providers, like aligning supply chains and carefully plan their activities
more in light of the traditional logistics/operational management perspective where tradeoffs between e.g.
transport and inventory costs in light of optimal lot sizes is one among several factors.
Further research into the issue of product variety in the intermodal service supply chain can perhaps be
recommended to gain competitive power based on a wider scope where variables outside the core of the
intermodal transport supply chain are taken into consideration. Moreover, we have focused on the shipper’s
willingness to choose or pay for ship transport with significant economies of scale in the discussion based on
non‐cooperative game theory. Carriers have only played a passive role. More specifically, if there is demand or
sufficient contributions to cover the fixed costs, a ship service will be provided by a carrier. Adding carriers to
the game could provide valuable insight into the market process and efficiency.
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Helgheim, Berit Irene; Jæger, Bjørn & Saeed, Naima
(2011).
Technological intermediaries as third party service providers in GlobalSupply Chains.
Høgskolen i Molde.
ISSN 978-82-7962-127-0.
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Saeed, Naima
(2009).
Competition and cooperation among container terminals in Pakistan : with emphasis on game theoretical analysis.
Høgskolen i Molde.
ISSN 9788279621133.