Naima Saeed

• Saeed, Naima; Nguyen, Su; Cullinane, Kevin; Gekara, Victor & Chhetri, Prem (2023). Forecasting container freight rates using the Prophet forecasting method. Transport Policy. ISSN 0967-070X. 133, p. 86–107. doi: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2023.01.012. Show summary

  This study applies three innovative methods in forecasting container freight rates. Firstly, we extracted 471 major disruptive events from the ‘Lloyds List’ database from 2010 until 2020, that may affect freight rates. Secondly, we use Machine Learning (ML) and natural language processing techniques to categorize these events into six distinct categories. These include: “congestion”, “peak demand”, “policy”, “price up”, “overcapacity”, and “coronavirus”. Thirdly, we apply Prophet forecasting on six major container routes by incorporating the six categories of events. The results reveal that ‘overcapacity’ and ‘coronavirus’ led to improved forecasting accuracy of freight rates when compared to the Prophet model without accounting for events. This study provides a more reliable mixed-method approach to improving the accuracy of container freight rate forecasts. The proposed forecasting technique will help policy makers and practitioners to develop and deploy strategies to mitigate the risks associated with the volatility of freight rates and supply chain costings.

• Rasca, Sinziana Ioana & Saeed, Naima (2022). Exploring the factors influencing the use of public transport by commuters living in networks of small cities and towns. Travel Behaviour & Society. ISSN 2214-367X. 28, p. 249–263. doi: 10.1016/j.tbs.2022.03.007. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  The use of public transport is directly associated with a reduced environmental impact for satisfying daily mobility needs. Current research has focused on identifying the factors affecting the use of public transport, elements such as age, car ownership, travel distance, or parking availability having been associated with a direct impact on an individual’s transport mode choice. However, most of these studies focused on the travel behaviour of individuals living in large cities, where the population density is high, and public transport is usually more developed than in small cities and towns. The present study provides additional insights into the impact of eleven different factors on the use of public transport by employees living and working in networks of small cities and towns in Northern Europe. The study uses ordered logistic regression to analyse the data collected in 2019 through a regional travel survey conducted in Agder, Norway. The results reveal that the choice of public transport as a daily commute mode is significantly affected by car ownership, distance to work, parking availability, and ticket prices. Additionally, the results indicate that the odds of employees using public transport increase when the respondents do not have persons in care. On the other hand, factors such as low bus frequency and long walking distances to the home bus stop show a negative impact on the use of public transport. Based on these results, regional and local policy actions are proposed.

• Saeed, Naima; Hoff, Arild & Larsen, Odd I (2021). Analysis of hinterland transport strategies when exporting perishable products. Research in Transportation Business and Management (RTBM). ISSN 2210-5395. 43(June), p. 1–9. doi: 10.1016/j.rtbm.2021.100766. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Since a good hinterland connection is considered an important factor in port competitiveness, the objective of this paper is to analyse the impact of the development of hinterland transport strategies on the competitiveness of the port by taking the Port of Cape Town, the Republic of South Africa as an example. The development of transport strategies is reflected in terms of a lower cost and higher frequency of inland transport. To investigate the interplay among export products, transport, and access to a port for exporters, we use a linear programming model. The model considers both the choice of transport modes and the impacts of improved inland transport strategies. The model could easily be extended to deal with other modes or transport alternatives. It is assumed that, initially, two modes of transport – trucks and railway − are available for transportation of the export product from the farm to the port. The analysis is extended by including intermodal transportation as a combination of railway and road transport. The results of the analysis show that improving the rail services and offering more frequent rail services from the farm to the port, could lead to a better and more flexible transportation strategy. Keywords: port competitiveness, inland hinterland, dry ports, perishable products, intermodal transport, linear programming

• Baharmand, Hossein; Balcik, Burcu; Boey, Lise; Decouttere, Catherine; Phillips, Ross Owen & Saeed, Naima [Show all 7 contributors for this article] (2021). Toward a decision support system for COVID-19 vaccine allocation inside countries. NOKOBIT: Norsk konferanse for organisasjoners bruk av informasjonsteknologi. ISSN 1892-0748. 2021(2), p. 1–14. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  The distribution of COVID-19 vaccines has proved to be a challenging task for public health authorities in many countries. Among several decisions involved in the task, allocating limited available vaccines to administration points is indeed critical. However, the operation management literature lacks evidence-based mathematical models that could support effective, efficient, sustainable and equitable vaccine allocation decision. This paper develops the fundamentals of a decision support system for COVID-19 vaccine allocation inside countries. The proposed DSS intends to support public health authorities in real-time by illustrating possible vaccine alternatives. The system could also inform and support other actors in the COVID19 distribution for planning and collaboration. Two illustrative cases for the COVID-19 vaccine allocation have been investigated to highlight potential benefits of our methodology.

• Saeed, Naima & Cullinane, Kevin (2021). Identifying the characteristics of maritime trading partners of China on the basis of bilateral shipping connectivity: A cluster analysis. Maritime Policy & Management. ISSN 0308-8839. 50(1), p. 42–57. doi: 10.1080/03088839.2021.1954256. Show summary

  China is ranked as the number one maritime connected country in the world. This study attempts to analyse the characteristics of its 155 maritime trading partners. Five components of maritime connectivity have been used for the analysis. A hierarchical clustering technique is applied to group the trading partners into distinct meaningful clusters. As China’s main maritime competitors within the East Asian region, the analysis is also applied to Singapore and Hong Kong. The clustering technique produces three distinct clusters for China and Singapore and two for Hong Kong. The results reveal the importance of direct maritime connectivity, with China having the highest number of trading partners with zero transhipment (including its top 15 trading partners), compared to Singapore and Hong Kong. The analysis is further extended by applying ordered logistic regression. The results show that the logistic performance index (LPI) and exports/imports have a positive and significant influence on clusters. Conclusions are drawn as to the potential for implementing strategies and policy interventions on the basis of the emergent clusters, particularly the need for Hong Kong to improve all five components of maritime connectivity in order to compete with China and Singapore.

• Jeon, Jun-Woo; Duru, Okan; Munim, Ziaul Haque & Saeed, Naima (2021). System Dynamics in the Predictive Analytics of Container Freight Rates. Transportation Science. ISSN 0041-1655. 55(4), p. 815–967. doi: 10.1287/trsc.2021.1046. Show summary

  This study proposes a two-tier cross-validation and backtesting procedure, including expanding and rolling-window test metrics in predictive analytics of container freight rates by utilizing the system dynamics approach. The study utilized system dynamics to represent the nonlinear complex structure of container freight rates for predictive analytics and performed univariate and multivariate time-series analysis as benchmarks of the conventional approach. In particular, the China containerized freight index (CCFI) has been investigated through various parametric methodologies (both conventional time-series and system dynamics approaches). This study follows a strict validation process consisting of expanding window and rolling-window test procedures for the out-of-sample forecasting accuracy of the proposed systemic model and benchmark models to ensure fair validation. In addition to the predictive features, major governing dynamics are presented in the analysis which may initiate further theoretical discussions on the economics and structure of the container shipping markets. Empirical results indicate that postsample accuracy can be affected by the sample size (training data size) in a given set of methodologies. Considering the economic challenges in the container shipping industry, the proposed methodology may help users to improve their cash-flow visibility and reduce the adverse effects of volatility in container shipping rates.

• Baharmand, Hossein; Saeed, Naima; Comes, Tina & Lauras, Matthieu (2021). Developing a framework for designing humanitarian blockchain projects. Computers in industry (Print). ISSN 0166-3615. 131. doi: 10.1016/j.compind.2021.103487. Full text in Research Archive
• Saeed, Naima; Cullinane, Kevin; Gekara, Victor & Chhetri, Prem (2021). Reconfiguring maritime networks due to the Belt and Road Initiative: Impact on bilateral trade flows . Maritime Economics & Logistics. ISSN 1479-2931. 23, p. 381–400. doi: 10.1057/s41278-021-00192-9. Show summary

  This paper aims to analyse the potential effects on bilateral trade movements of the reconfiguration of maritime networks brought about by the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). The gravity model of international trade is applied to examine the hypothesized impact of maritime network reconfiguration on the bilateral trade between nine exporting countries (Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Israel, Panama, Colombia, Costa Rica, Singapore, Malaysia and Indonesia) and their 128 trading partners. The panel data on the five components of the Liner Shipping Bilateral Connectivity Index (LSBCI), the export value, the gross domestic product (GDP) of the nine exporting countries, the GDP of their trading partners and the maritime distance linking them to these 128 trading partners for each of the years from 2008 to 2016 are used in the analysis. The results show that the estimated coefficient for the number of transhipments is negative, revealing an inverse relationship between transhipments and bilateral exports, reconfirming that a redesign of the maritime supply chain network in response to the BRI could significantly improve bilateral export values. Furthermore, a reduction in the number of required transhipments, because of a reconfiguration of maritime networks with BRI trading partners, will improve the maritime network structure between countries located along the three strategic chokepoints: the Suez Canal, the Panama Canal, and the Strait of Malacca. In general terms, the BRI-driven reconfiguration of maritime supply networks is linked to an improvement in the productivity of nine exporting countries. An innovative gravity-based econometric model, estimated on a large set of panel data, is introduced below, aiming at the modelling of the effect of BRI on supply chain network reconfiguration.

• Kodzi, Emmanuel & Saeed, Naima (2021). Increasing the attractiveness of a cruise port for cargo business: the contribution of stakeholders. Case Studies on Transport Policy. ISSN 2213-624X. 9(2), p. 879–888. doi: 10.1016/j.cstp.2021.04.008. Show summary

  Cruise and cargo operations, though distinct seaport activities, have sufficiently similar functions that by accommodating cargo business in a largely cruise domain, a port may achieve increased attractiveness and better resource utilization. We sought to conceptualize a framework by which an existing cruise port can integrate divergent stakeholder interests to achieve port attractiveness under this duality. We adopted a qualitative approach involving in-depth interviews with experts representing the port authority and key stakeholders at Port Canaveral, the second busiest multi-day cruise embarkation port in the world. We identified a supply chain integration model as a pathway to increasing port attractiveness; with the port authority promoting a shared identity and enabling supply chain flows, while stakeholders nurture unique competencies. Our resulting decision framework comprises short- and long-term strategic combinations of attractiveness factors to derive the full benefits of location, connectivity, cooperation and market positioning. Thus, we specify essential areas for improving a port’s overall attractiveness in the context of mastering this relatively innovative dual business model.

• Saeed, Naima; Cullinane, Kevin & Sødal, Sigbjørn Reidar (2020). Exploring the relationships between maritime connectivity, international trade and domestic production. Maritime Policy & Management. ISSN 0308-8839. doi: 10.1080/03088839.2020.1802783. Full text in Research Archive
• Saeed, Naima (2020). The effects of exchange rate on Norway’s bilateral trade flow to the UK via maritime and other transport modes: Does the ‘marshall-lerner’ condition hold? The Journal of International Logistics and Trade (JILT). ISSN 1738-2122. 18(2), p. 61–76. doi: 10.24006/jilt.2020.18.2.061. Show summary

  This paper analyzes the impact of macroeconomic variables such as real exchange rate, exchange-rate volatility, and economic growth of the UK and Norway on Norway’s bilateral trade flow to the UK via maritime and other transport modes. The first two models considered trade volume (import and export) via only maritime transport, while the third and fourth models considered trade volume via modes other than maritime transport. The empirical validity of the Marshall-Lerner condition is tested to see whether a devaluation of the real exchange rate improves the trade balance in the long term. In addition to the long-term relationship among variables, short-term effects are also evaluated. The results show that the real income of Norway and its trading partner (the UK) is the main determinant of bilateral trade flow via maritime and other transport modes. Moreover, the results indicate that in the long run, the Marshall-Lerner condition is satisfied only for bilateral trade via modes other than maritime transport.

• Munim, Ziaul Haque & Saeed, Naima (2019). Seaport competitiveness research: the past, present and future. International Journal of Shipping and Transport Logistics. ISSN 1756-6517. 11(6), p. 533–557. doi: 10.1504/IJSTL.2019.103877. Show summary

  This study presents a review of articles with a focus on seaport competitiveness from the maritime literature. We investigated how port competitiveness research has evolved during the last two decades using bibliometric citation analysis tools and techniques. Bibliography data, collected from the ISI Web of Science database, consisted of 267 research papers by 465 authors in 117 journals. Based on citation analysis, we identified the key universities, journals and articles and their impact on port competitiveness research. Also, seven key research streams with few sub-streams were revealed as a result of a mixed co-citation and in-depth content analysis of the most cited articles. A bibliometric co-citation mapping technique was used to show how the key articles are built on each other. Key research papers and their concepts, methods and findings are also discussed. Finally, we present some strategic research challenges and future research agendas.

• Hoffmann, Jan; Saeed, Naima & Sødal, Sigbjørn (2019). Liner shipping bilateral connectivity and its impact on South Africa’s bilateral trade flows. Maritime Economics & Logistics. ISSN 1479-2931. 22, p. 473–499. doi: 10.1057/s41278-019-00124-8. Show summary

  Since shipping connectivity reduces trade costs, which in turn improves trade, this paper aims to analyse the short- and long-run impacts of the liner shipping bilateral connectivity on South Africa’s trade flows. In addition to connectivity, measured by five separate components, we also consider the effects on trade of sailing distances, the direct (air) distance and the gross domestic product (GDP) of 142 trading partners. We apply the quasi-maximum likelihood method to estimate the parameters of a dynamic panel data model. The results show that GDP, the number of common direct connections and the level of competition have a positive and significant effect on trade flows, while the number of transshipments and the direct and sailing distances have a negative and significant impact, both in the short and long run. The estimated long-run effects are stronger than the short-run effects, suggesting that shippers take time to adjust their demand to changes in connectivity. The variable maximum ship size does not seem to have a positive bearing on trade, suggesting that countries may not need to try to accommodate ever larger ships to maintain their foreign trade competitiveness.

• Munim, Ziaul Haque; Saeed, Naima & Larsen, Odd I (2018). ‘Tool port’ to ‘landlord port’ : a game theory approach to analyse gains from governance model transformation. Maritime Policy & Management. ISSN 0308-8839. 46(1), p. 43–60. doi: 10.1080/03088839.2018.1468936. Show summary

  This study investigates potential port users’ surplus and terminal operators’ profits due to transforming port governance from the ‘tool port’ model to the ‘landlord port’ model. Although the landlord port model is one of the most adopted and successful port governance models, many ports still operate under other models. Chittagong Port, the largest port in Bangladesh, currently operates under the tool port model, while the country’s second-largest port, Mongla Port, operates under the service port model. Chittagong Port is currently facing many challenges, including capacity expansion and renovation of port facilities. Therefore, we form four hypothetical situations for port governance model transformation, assuming that Chittagong Port will transform to the landlord port model but that Mongla Port will run under the existing governance model. Estimating a Bertrand game model, we present a cost-benefit analysis for port users and terminal operators (or port authorities) in hypothetical game situations. The results reveal that privatising one of the container terminals under a landlord setting is the most profitable scenario for Chittagong Port Authority, but privatising all terminals of Chittagong Port yields the highest users’ surplus. However, privatising two of the terminals while they cooperate yields the lowest users’ surplus. Keywords: Bertrand competition, co-operative game, port governance, Chittagong port, two-stage game, competition and cooperation, characteristic function

• Saeed, Naima; Song, Dong-Wook & Andersen, Otto (2018). Governance mode for port congestion mitigation: A transaction cost perspective. Netnomics. ISSN 1385-9587. 19(3), p. 159–178. doi: 10.1007/s11066-018-9123-4. Show summary

  Transaction cost analysis (TCA) has been applied in a wide range of academic disciplines, including economics, marketing, sociology, organization theory, and business strategy. Literature in maritime transport has had limited exposure to this versatile theoretical framework. This paper aims at developing a conceptual model that describes governance strategies that various players within the maritime sector can adopt to mitigate congestion at ports. A TCA is used to examine port congestion mitigation from a governance perspective. A theoretical analysis conducted for this paper reveals that the three characteristics of TCA – asset specificity, frequency, and uncertainty – prevail in the maritime sector, too. The first two factors, frequency, and uncertainty contribute to port congestion, while the third factor, asset specificity, exists because to release port congestion, some players ought to make a specific investment. We use TCA to discuss the circumstances under which governance modes such as bilateral governance and vertical integration should be used to avoid congestion and other kinds of transaction costs associated with these three attributes in the maritime sector. In this study, we suggested several testable propositions to identify the mode of governance that should be selected by stakeholders to mitigate port congestion and to protect specific investments made to release congestion at ports. This line of analysis will certainly provide all the stakeholders engaged (particularly, a public policymaker) useful insight into understanding congestion from a governance perspective.

• Saeed, Naima & Larsen, Odd I (2016). Application of queuing methodology to analyze congestion : a case study of the Manila International Container Terminal, Philippines. Case Studies on Transport Policy. ISSN 2213-624X. 4(2), p. 143–149. doi: 10.1016/j.cstp.2016.02.001. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  The objective of this paper is to apply queuing methodology in order to analyze congestion at the Manila International Container Terminal (MICT) in the Port of Manila, the Philippines. The vessels calling at the MICT have to wait in a queue before receiving services at berths because of congestion. For vessel operators and cargo owners this situation creates waiting time costs and delays in delivery of goods to final customers. One option to decrease waiting time is to expand capacity by increasing the number of berths. Construction of a new berth is a time consuming and costly procedure, which needs to be considered carefully before being implemented. To determine whether the data collected is suitable for queuing methodology, the distribution pattern of ship arrivals has been analyzed. The results reveal that the pattern of ship arrivals follows Poisson’s law of random distribution, which confirms the validity of the proposed queuing methodology. Applying queuing methodology, with the objective of minimizing total cost, including waiting time cost and berth’s construction costs, reveals that the number of berths at MICT is currently adequate. In order to release congestion, port managers must take other actions. Keywords: port capacity, port economy, congestion, queuing theory, container terminal

• Saeed, Naima (2013). Cooperation among freight forwarders: Mode choice and intermodal freight transport. Research in Transportation Economics. ISSN 0739-8859. 42(1), p. 77–86. doi: 10.1016/j.retrec.2012.11.005. Show summary

  The objective of this paper is to compare vertical and horizontal cooperation among freight forwarders. The paper analyses three freight forwarders (‘players’) with two different means of transportation. The first two players are truck-operating freight forwarders. The third player is a freight forwarder with its own ship. For the purposes of analysis, the paper applied a two-stage game. The results revealed that the best form of cooperation is the one in which the large truck-operating company would establish a coalition with the ship-operating company; that is, vertical cooperation. This cooperation would generate better payoffs in the form of profit, not only to the members of this coalition, but also to the player that has not joined the coalition. However, user surplus is negative in all coalitions, which shows that the establishment of these kinds of cooperation is not beneficial (in terms of prices) for the users of these service providers.

• Saeed, Naima & Aaby, Bernt Christoffer (2013). Analysis of factors contributing to criteria for selection of European container terminals. Transportation Research Record. ISSN 0361-1981. p. 31–38. doi: 10.3141/2330-05. Show summary

  The selection criteria used by container shipping lines when choosing European container terminals were studied to determine what factors were crucial. Data were collected through a questionnaire given to shipping lines calling at the port of Rotterdam in the Netherlands, the port of Antwerp in Belgium, and the port of Hamburg in Germany, which were the main container hubs in Europe (as measured by the 20-ft equivalent units handled annually). Descriptive statistics revealed that the loading or discharging rate, handling charges, and service quality were the main attributes that influenced port selection. The least important selection factors were personal contacts, investments by shipping lines, and value-added activities. The analysis also showed that hinterland connections were more important than value-added activities. This finding suggested that ports should focus on developing good hinterland connections rather than on providing value-added activities. Factor analysis of the aggregate data was used to determine whether the attributes could be partitioned into fewer, more meaningful factors. According to the results, 12 variables were loaded into two factors, which also appeared to contain distinct elements: Factor 1 contained port attributes, and Factor 2 contained the variables related to formal and informal relationships between ports and shipping lines. Results of the study can be used by port authorities and terminal operators seeking to improve the efficiency and productivity of their ports according to the requirements of their customers, that is, shipping lines.

• Saeed, Naima & Larsen, Odd I (2013). Stackelberg or Bertrand: Which Price Model is Practically Applicable? In Meunier, Franc & Carre, James (Ed.), Game Theory : Economics, Theoretical Concepts and Finance Applications. Nova Science Publishers. ISSN 978-1-62417-165-9. p. 1–24. Show summary

  The objective of this study was to compare two strategies – the Bertrand game and the Stackelberg game – which can be applied to prices, set by four terminals in two ports of Pakistan. Numerical results were obtained by solving the multinomial logit model. The results show that in a Bertrand game, one container terminal (KICT), despite charging higher prices, captured a higher market share compared to its competitors. The results reflect the real data on the situation in the two ports in question. Because there are differences in market shares and costs among the container terminals, this study also analyzed a hypothetical leader-follower strategy using four sub cases. These results reveal that the leader can charge a monopolist price. However, it can capture a very high market share only when it has some natural advantages over its competitors. Moreover, there is a possibility that the leader will be wrong in assuming that the others will adopt its price. On this basis, it may be concluded that the Bertrand game in prices is probably the only one that consistently assumes rational and fully informed players. Keywords: Bertrand game, Stackelberg game, container terminals, game theory, competition.

• Saeed, Naima (2012). A game theoretical analysis of vertical and horizontal co-operation among freight forwarders. Proceedings : European Transport Conference. ISSN 1474-9122. p. 1–13. Show summary

  This paper compares vertical and horizontal cooperation among freight forwarders and analyses three freight forwarders ("players") with two different means of transportation. The first two players are truck-operating freight forwarders, one large and one small. The third player is a freight forwarder with its own ship. Freight forwarders have long played an important role in commerce and the international carriage of goods. Traditionally, the freight forwarder has been the link between the owner of the goods and the carrier, and provided forwarding or clearing services. The forwarder acted as the agent for the owner of the cargo or the carrier.

• Saeed, Naima & Larsen, Odd I. (2010). Container terminal concessions: A game theory application to the case of the ports of Pakistan. Maritime Economics & Logistics. ISSN 1479-2931. 12(3), p. 237–262. doi: 10.1057/mel.2010.8. Show summary

  The objective of this article is to analyse the effect of the type of concession contracts on port user surplus and on profits of terminal operators (or port authorities) with the help of game theory. We have selected three ports in Pakistan to perform this analysis. These ports function as "landlords" and have signed concession contracts with private con- tainer terminal operators. However, the features of the contracts at present are different for each terminal. We analyse four cases in this article. The first case is the present situation in which we treat competition between terminals as a Bertrand game in which each terminal non-cooperatively determines charges for container handling and pays fees to port authorities according to the contract. The Bertrand model seems to reproduce, to a satisfactory degree, the market shares and handling fees observed. Furthermore, in the second and third cases, a cost- benefit analysis is conducted by solving the Bertrand model. The results reveal that in the long run it is profitable for the Karachi Port to establish a same fixed fee contract with its private terminals. However, users are better off in a situation where a percentage fee concession contract would be adopted instead. The game theoretic framework is then extended to the analysis of the strategic decision faced by port authorities with respect to the trade-off between unit fees and annual rent in the last case. An optimal concession contract is obtained that is feasible for both parties in the sense that it contains high unit fees (variable cost) and low annual rent (fixed cost).

• Saeed, Naima & Larsen, Odd I. (2010). An application of cooperative game among container terminals of one port. European Journal of Operational Research. ISSN 0377-2217. 203(2), p. 393–403. doi: 10.1016/j.ejor.2009.07.019. Show summary

  In this paper a two-stage game that involves three container terminals located in Karachi Port in Pakistan is discussed. In the first stage, the three terminals have to decide on whether to act as a singleton or to enter into a coalition with one or both of the other terminals. The decision at this stage should presumably be based on the predicted outcome for the second stage. The second stage is here modelled as a Bertrand game with one outside competitor, the coalition and the terminal in Karachi Port (if any) that has not joined the coalition. Furthermore, three partial and one grand coalition among the three terminals at Karachi Port are investigated. The concepts of "characteristic function" and "core" are used to analyse the stability of these coalitions and this revealed that one combination does not satisfy the superadditivity property of the characteristic function and can therefore be ruled out. The resulting payoffs (profits) of these coalitions are analysed on the basis of "core". The best payoff for all players is in the case of a "grand coalition". However, the real winner is the outsider (the terminal at the second port) which earns a better payoff without joining the coalition, and hence will play the role of the "orthogonal free-rider".

• Saeed, Naima (2009). An analysis of carriers' selection criteria when choosing container terminals in Pakistan. Maritime Economics & Logistics. ISSN 1479-2931. 11(3), p. 270–288. Show summary

  This paper presents the results of an empirical study conducted by distributing questionnaires to shipping agents working for foreign principals in Karachi, Pakistan. In Part A of the questionnaire, respondents gave a score reflecting the importance of 13 factors affecting terminal selection. Their responses indicate that service quality, loading/discharging rate and handling charges are the most important selection factors. A linear model is developed in which the dependent variable is total stay (in hours). The independent variables are vessel type, vessel size, total TEUs (twenty-foot equivalent units), vessel frequency and past visits of the shipping line. All the coefficients are significant. In the second section (that is, Part B of the questionnaire), respondents gave scores reflecting the quality of different attributes and how they affect the attractiveness of four specific container terminals. One-way ANOVA was used to test whether respondents have significant opinion differences. The result indicated that respondents do differ in opinions. Moreover, factor analysis of the aggregate data produced two factors with strong loading of six attributes in one factor and two attributes in the second.

• Saeed, Naima & Larsen, Odd I. (2008). Game theoretical analysis of competition between container terminals in Pakistan. In Lo, H. P.; Leung, Stephen C. H. & Tam, Susanna M. L, (Ed.), Proceedings of the 13th International Conference of Hong Kong Society for Transportation Studies : Transportation and Management Science, 13-15 December, 2008, Hong Kong. Hong Kong Society of Transportation Studies. p. 729–738. Show summary

  The objective of this paper is to analyze competition between four terminals in two ports of Pakistan. The first port has 2 terminals that are privately operated and one terminal operated by the Port Authority while the second port has only one privately operated terminal. For the privately operated terminals, the Port Authorities has the function of a "landlord" with income from rents and unit fees on containers handled. Competition is initially treated as a Bertrand game where each terminal independently determines the fee for container handling. This is the present situation and the Bertrand model seems to give to a satisfactory approximation to market shares and handling fees observed. The game theoretic framework is then extended to analyze of the strategic decision faced by Port authorities with respect to trade-off between unit fees and rent. Finally we analyze the possible outcome of collusions between terminals in the first port. The results indicate that the combined profit of the 3 terminals will increase, but the main "winner" is the outsider located in the second port.

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• Afenyo, Mawuli; Ng, Adolf K. Y. & Saeed, Naima (2024). Safe and Sustainable Arctic Shipping Management and Development. Elsevier. ISBN 978-0443188497. 205 p.

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• Saeed, Naima (2023). Application of innovative forecasting methods to predict container freight rates.
• Chhetri, Prem; Ombati, Thomas; Shahrom, Melissa; Tsui, Kan & Saeed, Naima (2023). Belt and Road Initiative in the African context: questions on regional connectivity and inclusive development. The Journal of International Logistics and Trade (JILT). ISSN 1738-2122. 21(4), p. 198–203. doi: 10.1108/JILT-11-2023-070.
• Saeed, Naima (2023). Arctic Shipping Insurance from the Industry Perspective.
• Saeed, Naima & Ashraf, Hasan (2023). A Framework for a Sustainable and Resilient Cruise Shipping.
• Saeed, Naima (2023). Innovative forecasting techniques to improve predicting accuracy.
• Saeed, Naima (2023). International Teaching Experience, difference is learning approaches.
• Saeed, Naima (2023). An overview of industry experience on Arctic shipping insurance.
• Trakoonsanti, Lamphai; Chhetri, Prem; Shahparvari, Shahrooz; Singh, Amanpreet & Saeed, Naima (2023). Modelling Global Patterns, Characteristics and Factors of Port Lapse Time. Show summary

  This paper aims to identify, analyse and model the effect of port-specific factors on port lapse time. Factors are extracted from the Automatic Identification System (AIS) data, and port and country-level data to represent port dynamics and complex vessel flow networks. The structural equation modelling (SEM) is employed to model the effect of these factors on port lapse time - measured as deviation from the average of port time. The results indicate that better quality port infrastructure and suitable location conditions are more likely to improve port services which in turn contribute to a reduction in port lapse time. Quality of port infrastructure, location conditions and port network connectivity are also found to have a positive impact on port dynamic flow. The results of the mediation effect indicate that port network connectivity and port dynamic flow partially mediates the relationship between location conditions and port lapse time. The findings may contribute to the development of port strategies to not only help improve port operational efficiency to better manage port congestion/delay but also a long-term strategic investment in port infrastructure development to enhance inter-port connectivity.

• Saeed, Naima (2022). Panel Data Analysis.
• Saeed, Naima (2022). Reconfiguring Global Supply Chain Management and Network due to COVID-19 Pandemic .
• Saeed, Naima (2022). Port competitiveness and hinterland transport strategies: a case study of South Africa .
• Saeed, Naima (2022). The role of hinterland transport strategies in port management.
• Saeed, Naima; Nguyen, Su; Cullinane, Kevin; Gekara, Victor & Chhetri, Prem (2021). Did the COVID-19 pandemic disrupt container freight rate trends? Evidence from six of the main shipping routes. The Maritime Economist (ME-MAG). ISSN 2408-0683.
• Saeed, Naima (2021). Green/Sustainable Supply Chains.
• Saeed, Naima; Abbasi, Babak; Fadaki, Masih; Kokshagina, Olga & Chhetri, Prem (2021). A Model for COVID-19 Vaccine Allocations: A Case Study in Australia.
• Abbasi, Babak; Fadaki, Masih; Kokshagina, Olga; Saeed, Naima & Chhetri, Prem (2021). Vaccine roll-out: 3 key factors for success. Show summary

  This study developed a mathematical model to explore the efficient allocations and distributions of the COVID-19 vaccine. We took the state of Victoria, Australia, as a case study and tested different scenarios for vaccine distributions. Our analysis showed three key factors for success: capacity, transshipment of vaccines between medical centers, and suitable vaccine pack size. Our model helps decision-makers strike a balance between the cost of building extra capacity to try to achieve population vaccination in a given time scale or accepting a less costly approach that takes more time.

• Saeed, Naima; Nguyen, Su; Cullinane, Kevin; Gekara, Victor & Chhetri, Prem (2021). Impact of COVID-19 and Suez Canal blockage on forecasting container freight rates.
• Saeed, Naima (2021). A review of literature on green supply chain management: current trends and future directions .
• Kokshagina, Olga; Abbasi, Babak; Fadaki, Masih; Saeed, Naima & Chhetri, Prem (2020). We modelled how a COVID vaccine roll-out would work. Here’s what we found. The Conversation. ISSN 2201-5639.
• Kokshagina, Olga; Abbasi, Babak; Fadaki, Masih; Saeed, Naima & Chhetri, Prem (2020). Vaccine roll-out: This model found 3 key factors for success. Agenda - The World Economic Forum.
• Saeed, Naima; Nguyen, Su; Chhetri, Prem & Alahakoon, Damminda (2020). Analysis of the evolving maritime connectivity network structure using machine learning.
• Saeed, Naima & Kodzi, Emmanuel (2020). Decision support model for increasing the attractiveness of a cruise port for cargo business .
• Saeed, Naima & Cullinane, Kevin (2020). Identifying the characteristics of maritime trading partners on the basis of bilateral shipping connectivity: A cluster analysis.
• Saeed, Naima (2020). A link between maritime connectivity, port competitiveness, and economic growth .
• Saeed, Naima & Ng, Adolf K.Y (2020). Opportunities and challenges of the opening of the Arctic Ocean for Norway. In Ng, Adolf K.Y; Monios, Jason & Jiang, Changmin (Ed.), Maritime Transport and Regional Sustainability. Elsevier. ISSN 978-0-12-819134-7. p. 209–221.
• Saeed, Naima; Hoff, Arild & Larsen, Odd I (2019). The effect of the development of port’s inland hinterland transport technologies on the export of perishable products from South Africa. Show summary

  This paper aims to analyze the impact of the development of a port’s inland hinterland transport technologies when exporting perishable products from the Republic of South Africa. The development of transport technologies is reflected in terms of a lower cost and higher frequency of inland transport. The Republic of South Africa has an extensive transport network. Its production centres are connected by road and rail to the leading trade ports. Despite a well-developed transport network, its traders face delays caused by domestic transportation. To investigate the interplay between export products, transport and market access for exporters, a linear programming model is presented in this paper. It is assumed that initially, two modes of transport are available for transportation of the export product from the farm to the "market." The two modes are trucks and railway, and analysis is extended by including intermodal transportation as a combination of railway and road. The model is solved with different numeric values for the parameters, to understand the roles of transport technologies, access improvements and the interplay between them.The results of the analysis show that the optimal strategy is to improve the rail infrastructure to offer more frequent rail services from the market to the port of Cape Town.

• Saeed, Naima (2018). Expose pupils to maritime studies.
• Saeed, Naima (2018). Can port efficiency become a drawcard for business development?
• Saeed, Naima (2018). Maritime Transport in Africa: an Agenda for Future Research.
• Saeed, Naima; Sødal, Sigbjørn & Hoffmann, Jan (2018). Liner shipping connectivity and its impact on bilateral trade flow of South Africa: A Quasi-Maximum Likelihood (QML) estimation of panel data with random effects. Show summary

  This paper analyses the impact of the liner shipping bilateral connectivity on bilateral trade flow of South Africa with the rest of the world. The bilateral connectivity is measured by way of five components that are the number of transshipments, the number of common direct connections, the geometric mean of the number of direct connections, the level of competition on services, and the size of the largest ships on the weakest route between South Africa and its trading partner. In addition to these five variables, the data for real income of South Africa and the real income of its 148 trading partners was collected from 2006-2016. This study applies the Quasi-Maximum Likelihood (QML) method to estimate the dynamic panel data with random effect. The results show that the real income of South Africa, the real income of its trading partners, the number of common direct connections, and the level of competition on services have a positive, while the number of transshipments has a negative and significant effect on bilateral trade flow of South Africa.

• Munim, Ziaul Haque; Saeed, Naima; Ng, Adolf K. Y. & Duru, Okan (2018). Evaluation and selection of transshipment port using analytic network process approach.
• Saeed, Naima (2018). Effect of macroeconomic variables on Norway's bilateral trade flow via maritime and other transport modes to the UK.
• Saeed, Naima (2018). An overview of my previous research.
• Saeed, Naima (2017). Effect of Macroeconomic Variables on Norway’s Bilateral Maritime Trade Flow to Its Major Trading Partners . Show summary

  The objective of this paper is to analyze the effect of macroeconomic variables such as real exchange rate, exchange-rate volatility and real income of six major trading partners (Denmark, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Sweden, and the UK) on Norway’s bilateral maritime trade flow. Data was collected from the first quarter of 1999 until the second quarter of 2017 to estimate the autoregressive distributed lag models (ARDLs). The first model considered trade volume (import and export) via only maritime transport, while the second model included trade volume via modes other than maritime transport. Empirical validity of the Marshall-Lerner condition is tested to see whether devaluation of the real exchange rate improves maritime trade balance in the long term. In addition to the long-run relationship among variables, short term effects are also evaluated to see whether the adjustment is characterized by the so-called J-curve effect, which shows that the trade balance initially deteriorates in response to devaluations, or a reversed L-curve effect, under which the short-run adjustment is negligible.

• Saeed, Naima (2017). An analysis of effect of macroeconomic variables on Norway's export to the UK via different modes of transportation. Show summary

  The objective of this paper is to analyze the effect of real income, real exchange rate and exchange-rate volatility on Norway's export to the UK via different modes of transportation. The export goods are grouped by levels of processing (raw materials, semi-finished and finished products) under the UN Standard International Trade Classification (SITC). Data was collected from 1999: Q1 until 2015: Q4 for each type of export products and each mode of transportation, from Norway to the UK, to estimate the autoregressive distributed lag models (ARDLs). In this study, total thirty-six ARDL models (six types of goods and six modes of transportation) were estimated. The results indicate that real income of the UK is the main influencer on Norway's export to the UK via all modes of transportation. Real exchange rate and exchange-rate volatility also have significant effects in most of the cases. The interesting aspect is variations in signs of these variables for different modes. For instance, the real income of the UK has a negative and significant effect on export of food to the UK via maritime transportation, but it has a positive and significant effect on export of food via truck and railway. It means with the increase in real income of the UK, the demand for maritime transportation will decrease while the demand for truck and railway will increase to export food from Norway to the UK.

• Munim, Ziaul Haque; Saeed, Naima & Larsen, Odd I (2017). ‘Tool port’ to ‘landlord port’: A game theory approach to analyse gains from governance model transformation.
• Munim, Ziaul Haque; Saeed, Naima & Qin, Feifei (2017). Benchmarking Chinese port container terminal efficiency: Exploring key efficiency drivers.
• Saeed, Naima (2017). Impact of Exchange-Rate Volatility and Economic Growth on Norway’s Maritime Export to its Major Trading Partners . Show summary

  This paper’s objective is to analyze the impact of real exchange rate, exchange-rate volatility and real income of six major trading partners (Denmark, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Sweden, and the UK) on Norway’s maritime export. Data was collected from the first quarter of 1999 until the fourth quarter of 2015 to estimate the autoregressive distributed lag models (ARDLs). The first model considered export volume via only maritime transport, while the second model included export volume via modes other than maritime transport. The results of the first model show that there was no long-run stable relationship between variables in the cases of France and the Netherlands. However, the results of the second model only showed a long-run stable relationship among variables in the cases of Denmark and the UK. The analysis revealed that the real income of the trading partners is the major determinant of Norway’s export flow via maritime and other modes of transportation. The effects of these economic variables vary in the short and long terms for all trading partners.

• Munim, Ziaul Haque & Saeed, Naima (2017). ‘Tool Port’ to ‘Landlord Port’: Gains From Governance Model Transformation.
• Saeed, Naima; Song, Dong-Wook & Andersen, Otto (2016). Governance Mode for Port Congestion Mitigation: A Transaction Cost Perspective. Show summary

  The paper aims to discuss a governance strategy that stakeholders in the maritime (i.e.,shipping and ports) and its associated (e.g., logistics service providers) sector can adopt in order to mitigate congestion at ports. In a situation where no congestion occurs at a port, port and/or terminal operators are better informed of the present and future demand from shipping lines and of external factors that may cause congestion; the operators are also expected to enable to adapt their operating capacity as per changes in demand. Moreover, if those stakeholders in the sector are assumed to have a single goal for profit maximization, it is likely that there exists a market governance structure leading to no port congestion. Having those points in mind, this paper proposes a transaction-cost analytical framework to discuss about under which circumstances governance modes, such as bilateral governance and vertical integration, are to be implemented to better tackle the congestion problem at ports. A transaction cost analysis (TCA) is utilized to examine the port-congestion mitigation problem from a governance perspective. A theoretical analysis conducted for this paper reveals that in order to release port congestion, some players ought to make a specific investment. This line of analysis will certainly provide all the stakeholders engaged (particularly, a public policymaker) a useful insight into understanding the congestion matter from a governance perspective.

• Munim, Ziaul Haque & Saeed, Naima (2016). Seaport competitiveness research: A bibliometric citation meta-analysis.
• Saeed, Naima; Song, Dong-Wook & Andersen, Otto (2016). Understanding port congestion as a governance issue: a transaction cost perspective. Show summary

  Transaction cost analysis (TCA) has been applied in a wide range of academic disciplines including economics, marketing, sociology, organization theory, and business strategy. Literature in maritime transport has had a limited exposure to this versatile theoretical framework. The objective of the paper is to discuss a governance strategy that various players within the maritime (i.e., shipping and port) and its associated (e.g., logistics service providers) sector can adopt in order to mitigate congestion at ports. We use TCA to discuss the circumstances under which governance modes, such as bilateral governance and vertical integration, should be used to increase efficiency within a maritime supply chain. Implications for theoretical development and practical application are discussed in the context of the recent development in the maritime sector.

• Saeed, Naima & Larsen, Odd I (2014). Application of queuing methodology to analyze congestion at the Manila International Container Terminal.
• Saeed, Naima & Aaby, Bernt Christoffer (2013). An analysis of factors contributing as selection criteria for users of European container terminals. Show summary

  This paper examines the selection criteria for container shipping lines when choosing European container terminals. The purpose of the study is to determine the factors that are crucial for shipping lines when choosing European container terminals. Data has been collected via a questionnaire given to shipping lines calling at the Port of Rotterdam, the Port of Antwerp, and the Port of Hamburg, which are the main container hubs in Europe (measured by the number of TEUs handled annually). Descriptive statistics reveal that loading/discharging rate, handling charges, and service quality are the main attributes that influence port selection. The least important selection factors are personal contacts, investments by shipping lines, and value-added activities. The analysis also shows that hinterland connections are more important than value-added activities. This suggests that ports should focus more on developing good hinterland connections than on providing value-added activities. Factor analysis of the aggregate data is used to determine whether the 13 attributes could be partitioned into fewer, more meaningful factors. According to the results, 12 variables are loaded into two factors, which also seem to contain distinct elements: Factor 1 contains “Ports attributes” and Factor 2 contains the variables related to “Formal and informal relationships between ports and shipping lines.” This study will be useful for port authorities and terminal operators wishing to improve the efficiency and productivity of their port according to the requirements of their customers (that is, shipping lines).

• Kaselimi, Evangelia N.; Notteboom, Theo E. & Saeed, Naima (2012). Should We Concession One Large Container Terminal or Two Smaller Ones? : A Game Theoretical Approach with Application to Valparaiso Port. In Gillen, David (Eds.), 5th ALRT Asian Logistics Roundtable & Conference in Vancouver BC, Canada : Papers and presentations. ALRT. p. 1–29. Show summary

  During the pre-bidding phase of a terminal awarding procedure, landlord port authorities are sometimes confronted with the decision whether to split an available port site into two or more sections to be concessioned separately. The strategic decision behind is the concessioning of the terminal to the same terminal operator or to different ones. A recent case includes the port of Brisbane in Australia. The port authority of Valparaiso in Chile is now facing a similar challenge. The port authority of Valparaiso concessioned terminal 1 to a private operator and is considering whether it should concession the second site to the same terminal operator or, alternatively, opt for a competitive bidding procedure to attract another terminal operator, thereby promoting intra-port competition. The port is already facing inter-port competition from neighbouring port San Antonio which handles about the same container volume as port of Valparaiso. In this paper, a game theoretical model is developed in order to shed light on the best option for the port authority of Valparaiso. For this purpose, a non-cooperative two-stage game is developed that models intra-port in and inter-port competition between the port of Valparaiso and San Antonio. In the first stage, the port authority of Valparaiso decides on the way it is going to subdivide its respective port infrastructure. In the second stage, competition between the terminals of the two ports is modelled as a Bertrand game. The game is solved backwards. This paper builds further on earlier work of the authors with respect to the application of game theory to inter-port and intra-port competition by providing a real-life application to Chilean ports. Keywords: container terminals, competition, concessions, game theory, Chile.

• Hermansen, Olav & Omtalt person: Saeed, Naima (2011). Konkurranse og samarbeid mellom containerterminaler – hvem vinner? Logistikk & Ledelse. ISSN 1501-5890. 24(3), p. 46–47. Show summary

  I internasjonale forsyningskjeder kan effektiviteten til havneterminaler utgjøre en viktig forskjell. I sin doktorgradsavhandling ved Høgskolen i Molde har Naima Saeed tatt opp dette spørsmålet – ved hjelp av en til nå uvanlig tilnærming innen logistikkfaget.

• Saeed, Naima & Larsen, Odd I. (2011). Application of Stackelberg model : an analysis of advantage of moving first for container terminals in Pakistan. Show summary

  The objective of this paper is to do a comparison between two strategies i.e. Bertrand and Stackelberg game, played by four terminals in two ports of Pakistan. Results show that in a Bertrand game one container terminal (KIC), despite charging higher price, captures higher market share compared to its competitors. A comparison of this result with real data shows that same is the situation in reality in two ports of Pakistan. Due to the difference in market shares and costs among container terminals we have also analyzed the leader-follower strategy with four sub-cases. Results reveal that the leader can charge a monopolist price. However, it captures very high market share only when it has some natural advantages over its competitors. Moreover, there is a possibility that the leader is wrong in making an assumption that the others will adopt his price. Thus we may conclude that the Bertrand game in prices is probably the only game in prices that consistently assumes rational and fully informed players.

• Kaselimi, Evangelia N.; Notteboom, Theo E. & Saeed, Naima (2011). A game theoretical approach to the inter-relation between terminal scale and port competition. Show summary

  From the landlord port authorities' point of view, the strategic question on the splitting of an available site into two or more sections to be concessioned to terminal operators is a realistic one that is troubling them already in the pre bidding phase. But even if not in the pre bidding phase, port authorities have the chance later via concession contracts to control the terminal scale. In addition, the division of the aggregate market size by efficient scaled terminals indicates the maximum number of technologically efficient terminals that the market can sustain. A terminal scale relative close to the market size is a barrier to entry that hinders intra but also inter port competition. On the other hand, a terminal scale relative smaller to the market size would in theory allow the introduction of more terminals. In this paper, a game theory model is introduced to study the scale of container terminals in combination with the market size in order to examine how they affect terminal competition. The starting point is the landlord port management system with long-term concessions agreements shaping the formal relationships between the port authority (who own the land) and the private terminal operators (who use the land for terminal activities). The research is based on the empirical point of view that suggests that the scale decisions for a container terminal are taken before terminals arrive on the market, in the pre-bidding phase of a concession agreement while later in the operational phase the price decisions are taken. Taking this into account and based on the assumption that the capacity of the terminals is fixed and consequently the cost curves of the terminals are U-shaped, the Kreps and Scheinkman (1983) suggestion is rejected and a two-stage game theoretic model is developed. The aim of the model is to analyse the interrelation between economics of scale and intra-port competition and its effect on port authorities concessioning decisions. The model is illustrated by referring to a number of hypothetical cases of terminal competition in a realistic setting.

• Saeed, Naima (2011). Cooperation among freight forwarders : mode choice and intermodal freight transport. Show summary

  The freight forwarder has always played an important role in commerce and international carriage of goods. Traditionally the freight forwarder was the link between the owner of the goods and the carrier, and provided forwarding or clearing services. The forwarder acted as the agent for the owner of the cargo or the carrier. However, in more recent years the freight forwarder has moved onto a new role in not only assisting the parties to get the goods transported, but in "undertaking" to get the goods transported by his own means of transport (truck/train/ship) or making arrangements with other transport providers. In this role the freight forwarder act as a principal and not as an agent and is known by many names e.g. a NVOCC (Non-vessel Owning Common Carrier), an MTO (Multi-modal Transport Operator) including both Vessel Operating Multimodal Transport Operators (VO- MTOs) and Non-Vessel Operating Multimodal Transport Operators (NVO-MTOs), a logistics service provider, etc. In the ongoing globalization process large international freight forwarding companies have a competitive advantage compared to small companies due to their wider portfolio of disposable resources and a market power position. The remedy for the medium- and small-sized carrier business is to establish coalitions in order to extend their resource portfolio and reinforce their market positions (Krajewska and Kopfer, 2006). Moreover, the structure of large freight forwarding companies frequently assumes autonomously operating subsidiaries that should, however, cooperate in order to maximize the overall business profit. The purpose of the cooperation of freight forwarders entities is to find equilibrium between the demanded and the available transport resources within several carrier entities by interchanging customer requests (Kopfer and Pankratz, 1999). Following three players are defined in this paper: 1. A freight forwarder with his own means of land transport (e.g. truck). 2. A freight forwarderwith his own ship. In the literature this player is known as VO-MTO. VO-MTOs are ship-owners who have extended their services beyond carrying the cargo from port to port to include carriage over land and even by air. They may or may not own the other means of transport (by road, rail or air). If they do not, they arrange for these types of transport by subcontracting with such carriers. 3. A freight forwarder without his own means of transport but he will select the mode of transport on the behalf of his customer. Now different combinations of coalitions are possible in this situation: For instance, if player 1 and 2 will cooperate, this will result in the situation of intermodal freight transportation. Player 3 can cooperate with player 1 or with player 2; in this case this will be the mode choice. And last possibility is that all these three players will cooperate. The objective of this paper is to analyze the different combinations of coalitions and expected benefits associated with these coalitions from both customers and freight forwarders' point of view. For this purpose we will use the Bertrand model developed by Saeed and Larsen (2010). References Kopfer, H. and Pankratz, G. (1999). Das Groupage-Problem kooperierender Verkehrstrager. Oper Res Proc, 1998: 453-462, Springer, Berlin Heidelberg, New York. Krajewska, M.N. and Kopfer, H. (2006). Collaborating freight forwarding enterprises: Request allocation and profit sharing. OR Spectrum, 28: 301- 317. Saeed, N. and Larsen, O.I. (2010) An application of cooperative game among container terminals of one port, European Journal of Operational Research 203:393-403.

• Saeed, Naima & Larsen, Odd I. (2009). Effect of type of concession contract on game outcome among container terminals. In ., Ukjent (Eds.), Conference Proceedings (USB). International Association of Maritime Economists. Show summary

  Pakistan has three ports with container terminals. Karachi Port has three terminals, while the other two have one terminal each. With the exception of one terminal in Karachi Port, these terminals are privately operated and the port authorities have the role of "landlord". The terminals compete for traffic and the outcome can be considered as the result of a game. The objective of this paper is to analyse the effect of the type of contract between the landlord and the terminal on the outcome of this game that involves five container terminals, competing with each other in three ports of Pakistan. These ports function as "landlords", and hence have signed a "concession contract" with their private container terminals. However, the features of the contracts are different for each port. We have analysed four cases in this paper. The first case is the present situation in which we treat the competition between terminals as a Bertrand game where each terminal non-cooperatively determines the charge for container handling and pays fees according to the contract to port authorities. The Bertrand model seems to represent to a satisfactory degree the market shares and handling fees observed. Game outcome is extended further to determine the level of same fixed and percentage fee for private terminals at Karachi Port, instead of a differentiated fee, that will give the same profit to Karachi Port Authority. Results show that the Nash equilibrium prices and profit of two private terminals are low in the case of same percentage fee as compared to the fixed fee. Furthermore, the situation is analysed to see the effect of the addition of one more player on game outcome. New Nash equilibrium results indicate that this results in low prices and profit for all terminals. The game's theoretic framework is then extended to the analysis of the strategic decision faced by port authorities with respect to trade-off between unit fees and rent in the third case. An optimal concession contract is obtained which is feasible for both parties with high unit fees and low annual rent.

• Saeed, Naima & Larsen, Odd I. (2009). Effect of type of concession contract on game outcome among container terminals.
• Saeed, Naima & Larsen, Odd I. (2009). Competition between two ports : an application of cooperative game among container terminals of one port. Show summary

  In this paper two-stage game played by three container terminals is discussed. In the first stage of the game, all terminals are playing a non-cooperative game, which is solved with the help of Bertrand model. In the second stage of the game, three partial and one grand coalition are investigated on the basis of characteristic function and core.

• Saeed, Naima & Larsen, Odd I. (2008). Game theoretical analysis of competition between container terminals in Pakistan. Show summary

  The objective of this paper is to analyze competition between four terminals in two ports of Pakistan. The first port has 2 terminals that are privately operated and one terminal operated by the Port Authority while the second port has only one privately operated terminal. For the privately operated terminals, the Port Authorities has the function of a "landlord" with income from rents and unit fees on containers handled. Competition is initially treated as a Bertrand game where each terminal independently determines the fee for container handling. This is the present situation and the Bertrand model seems to give to a satisfactory approximation to market shares and handling fees observed. The game theoretic framework is then extended to analyze of the strategic decision faced by Port authorities with respect to trade-off between unit fees and rent. Finally we analyze the possible outcome of collusions between terminals in the first port. The results indicate that the combined profit of the 3 terminals will increase, but the main "winner" is the outsider located in the second port.

• Saeed, Naima & Larsen, Odd I. (2008). Competition between two ports : from game theory perspective. In Petrosjan, Leon A. & Zenkevich, Nikolay A. (Ed.), The Second International Conference Game Theory and Management : GTM2008, June 26-27, 2008, St. Petersburg, Russia : Abstracts. Graduate School of Management. St. Petersburg University. p. 189–191.
• Saeed, Naima & Larsen, Odd I. (2008). Competition between two ports : from game theory perspective. Show summary

  This paper presents the analysis of competition between four terminals in two ports in Pakistan. The first port has 2 terminals that are privately operated and one terminal operated by the Port Authority, while the second port has only one privately operated terminal. For the privately operated terminals, the Port Authorities has the function of a 'landlord' with income from rents and unit fees on containers handled. Competition is initially treated as a Bertrand game where each terminal independently determines the fee for container handling. This is the present situation and the Bertrand model seems to represent to a satisfactory degree the market shares and handling fees observed. The game theoretic framework is then extended to analysis of the strategic decision faced by port authorities with respect to the trade-off between unit fees and rent. Finally, we analyse the possible outcome of collusions between terminals in the first port. The results indicate that the combined profit of the 3 terminals will increase, but the main 'winner' is the outsider located in the second port.

• Baharmand, Hossein; Balcik, Burcu; Birkeland, Asle; Boey, Lise; Decouttere, Catherine & Fossli, Håvard [Show all 10 contributors for this article] (2022). Project report #4 – Final report: System Demonstration and Validation . Universitetet i Agder. ISSN 978-82-8427-075-3.
• Baharmand, Hossein; Balcik, Burcu; Boey, Lise; Decouttere, Catherine; Fossli, Håvard & Kjøndal, Jan Ove [Show all 9 contributors for this article] (2022). Project report #3: Vaccine supply chain decision support system. Universitetet i Agder. ISSN 978-82-8427-060-9. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  The project "COVID-19 Network Technology-based Responsive Action" (CONTRA) started in June 2020. The CONTRA project initially aimed to develop a decision support system to support public health responders to distribute the COVID-19 vaccine effectively, efficiently, sustainably, and fairly. However, over the course of the project, also shown in this report, we found two important factors. First, the central allocation problem is the core of vaccine distribution inside countries: allocating different vaccines from national storage point to municipalities and regions. Second, optimizing the central vaccine allocation only based on the equity criterion could have two advantages. (a) It helps to avoid unnecessary trade-offs between several objectives that could prolong the decision-making process. (b) Based on observations that show the same behavior of effectiveness and equity measures for the central allocation problem, focusing on either of them would guarantee the other. This report summarizes the actions and results in the project, as of work package (WP) WP 3 in the period June - December 2021. In WP3, we design the decision support dashboard based on the mathematical model that we developed in WP2. We are grateful to the professionals at public health authorities and partnered businesses who have contributed with their time and expertise, and look forward to further collaboration. The project is funded by the Research Council of Norway (agreement No. 312773).

• Baharmand, Hossein; Balcik, Burcu; Decouttere, Catherine; Phillips, Ross Owen; Saeed, Naima & Vandaele, Nico (2020). CONTRA Project report #1: Requirements identification and system mapping . Universitetet i Agder. ISSN 978-82-8427-006-7. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  The research project “COVID-19 Network Technology-based Responsive Action” (CONTRA), funded by the Research Council of Norway, commenced in June 2020. The CONTRA project develops a decision support system (DSS) based on mathematical modeling and stochastic optimization, and machine learning tools for designing a robust COVID-19 vaccine distribution network. The project follows two main objectives within two phases. In response to the on-going COVID-19 outbreak, rapid analyses will provide actionable advice to public health authorities in Norway regarding vaccine distribution and delivery to responders. This phase involved a systematic study of vaccine distribution system actors in Norway and their decision-making needs. Based on such insights, the project will develop a DSS based on mathematical models to support designing the vaccine distribution network. The DSS should contribute to the effectiveness, efficiency, equity, and sustainability of the COVID-19 vaccine distribution. The proposed solution will also support vaccine distribution in future pandemics. The report describes the results of the first work package (WP) in the CONTRA project. The WP1 aims to identify the key actors in the vaccine distribution network in Norway, map their relation to each other, and distinguish critical decisions in the system. Moreover, the report presents an overview of related research on vaccine distribution networks, related decision support systems, and the progress in the literature about the COVID-19 pandemic. Through preliminary interviews, document review, and a workshop with multiple representatives from Norwegian public health authorities, the current vaccine distribution system is analyzed, and its actors have been mapped. This system map is the basis for further discussion both within the project team and with stakeholders. It should be noted that this map will change throughout the project due to the additional insights from other validation opportunities and the fact that the COVID-19 context is dynamic and is changing permanently. However, the system map has served as a basis for the problem definition in the CONTRA project. Based on our findings from the stakeholder workshop and system mapping, we have decided to focus on defining and studying the central vaccine allocation problem (CVAP), which is faced by Public Health Institute (FHI). As such, the CONTRA will investigate the problem of determining the amount of each vaccine to be shipped to every municipality. CVAP is challenged by the scarce amount of vaccines, the current immunization level, population, and priority groups in each municipality. In our project, CVAP will be formulated as a multi-objective resource allocation problem. Specifically, we will define and formulate objectives related to the following performance dimensions: efficacy (e.g., total coverage, coverage per priority group, etc.), efficiency and sustainability (e.g., logistics costs, waste), and fairness (e.g., distribution of efficacy among municipalities). The next step in the project will be to validate the problem definition and develop the mathematical model (second work package). Moreover, two individual reports for the actors map and system map will be published in the upcoming months by project partners.

• Bråthen, Svein; Saeed, Naima; Sunde, Øyvind; Husdal, Jan; Jensen, Arne & Sorkina, Edith (2012). Customer and agent initiated intermodal transport chains : final report to the NRC/SMARTRANS program for the Norwegian part of NCR project no 188387. Møreforsking Molde AS. ISSN 978-82-7830-166-1. Show summary

  This report concludes the Norwegian part of the ERA‐NET project CA‐CHAINS (NCR project number 188387). Gothenburg University (UiG, The Logistics and Transport Research Group (LTRG) within the Department of Business Administration at the school of Business, Economics and Law) has been the lead partner in this project. Molde University College has been responsible for the Norwegian part. The main objective with this part of the project has been to increase knowledge and understanding of the initiation and development of customer and agent initiated intermodal transport chains. Many of the findings are supported by earlier research; higher volumes and transport supply chain alignment are key success factors. The public sector has a role in coordinating and aligning the transport supply chain (coordination between ports, railway and terminal capacity and utilization, road network design and connectivity), to act as moderators where coordination needs are evident and to set correct prices and charges for use of various types of energy, and of transport infrastructure. But there are also likely areas of improvement for the transport users and providers, like aligning supply chains and carefully plan their activities more in light of the traditional logistics/operational management perspective where tradeoffs between e.g. transport and inventory costs in light of optimal lot sizes is one among several factors. Further research into the issue of product variety in the intermodal service supply chain can perhaps be recommended to gain competitive power based on a wider scope where variables outside the core of the intermodal transport supply chain are taken into consideration. Moreover, we have focused on the shipper’s willingness to choose or pay for ship transport with significant economies of scale in the discussion based on non‐cooperative game theory. Carriers have only played a passive role. More specifically, if there is demand or sufficient contributions to cover the fixed costs, a ship service will be provided by a carrier. Adding carriers to the game could provide valuable insight into the market process and efficiency.

• Helgheim, Berit Irene; Jæger, Bjørn & Saeed, Naima (2011). Technological intermediaries as third party service providers in GlobalSupply Chains. Høgskolen i Molde. ISSN 978-82-7962-127-0.
• Saeed, Naima (2009). Competition and cooperation among container terminals in Pakistan : with emphasis on game theoretical analysis. Høgskolen i Molde. ISSN 9788279621133.

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