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Jochen Jungeilges

Professor

Department of Economics and Finance

Email: jochen.jungeilges@uia.no
Phone: +47 38141722

Office 9I246 (Universitetsveien 19, 4630 Kristiansand, Norway)

Areas of responsibility

Jochen A. Jungeilges is a Professor of Economics in the School of Business and Law at the University of Agder. He holds master degrees in Economics (University of Bielefeld) and Applied Statistics (Louisiana State University), a PhD in Economics (University of Bielefeld), and a Habilitation (University of Osnabrueck). In the past he held teaching and research positions in the economics departments at Osnabrueck University (C1), Washington University (St. Louis, visiting scholar), Christian Albrecht University (Kiel), Ruhr University (Bochum) and University of Bielefeld. His research efforts are concentrated in economic dynamics and applied econometrics. Particular research interests relate to the fields of non-linear deterministic and stochastic dynamic systems in micro and macroeconomics, statistical methodology, and empirical social choice.

His work has been published in, amongst others, the Journal of the European Economic Association, Communications in Non-linear Science & Numerical Simulation, Journal of Econometrics, Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization. Jungeilges has contributed to book projects published by Springer and Cambridge University Press.

Jungeilges engages in faculty duties as appointment boards or contact visits to potential foreign partner universities. He has been involved in international dissertation procedures. Apart from presenting research results to the local and the international scientific community, he works as a referee for various international journals.

Research

Academic interests

In current research Jungeilges and collaborators study transitions ocurring between coexisting attractors of stochastic dynamic systems. Focus on transition phenomena in the presence of multistability in a discrete time stochastic dynamic consumption model and a stochastic financial market model. Analytical tools like the stochastic sensitivity function and the related technique of confidence domains are combined with numerical simulation to gain an understanding of the tranisition phenomenon.

In a recent macroeconomic project Jungeilges studied a stochastic version of Goodwin's business cycle model establishing the fact that it generates significant fluctuation in output volatility along the business cycle. Subsequently, he is addressing the problem of estimability of the sensitivity function associated with the stochastic cycle.

Jungeilges currently became interested in applying concepts from network analysis to the analysis of non-linear financial time series. For instance, in a recent effort he applies visibility graphs to characterize a GARCH process.

Tuition

Teaching contributions

Financial Econometrics (SE-419)
Empirical Finance (SE-510)
Machine Learning with Applications in Finance (SE-507)
Supervision of master theses in the areas of economics and finance (SE-501)

Jungeilges, Jochen; Pavletsov, Makar & Perevalova, Tatyana (2022). Noise-induced behavioral change driven by transient chaos. Chaos, Solitons & Fractals. ISSN 0960-0779. 158. doi: 10.1016/j.chaos.2022.112069. Full text in Research Archive Show summary
We study behavioral change in the context of a stochastic, non-linear consumption model with preference adjusting, interdependent agents. Changes in long-run consumption behavior are modelled as noise induced transitions between coexisting attractors. A particular case of multistability is considered: two fixed points, whose immediate basins have smooth boundaries, coexist with a periodic attractor, with a fractal immediate basin boundary. If a trajectory leaves an immediate basin, it enters a set of complexly intertwined basins for which final state uncertainty prevails. The standard approach to predicting transition events rooted in the stochastic sensitivity function technique due to Mil'shtein and Ryashko (1995) does not apply since the required exponentially stable attractor, for which a confidence region could be constructed, does not exist. To solve the prediction problem we propose a heuristic based on the idea that a vague manifestation of a non-attracting chaotic set (chaotic repellor) - could serve as a surrogate for an attractor. A representation of the surrogate is generated via an algorithm for generating the boundary of an absorbing area due to Mira et al. (1996). Then a confidence domain for the surrogate is generated using the approach due to Bashkirtseva and Ryashko (2019). The intersections between this confidence region and the immediate basins of the coexisting attractors can then be used to make predictions about transition events. Preliminary assessments show that the heuristic indeed explains the transition probabilities observed in numerical experiments.
Jungeilges, Jochen; Nilssen, Trygve Kastberg; Perevalova, Tatyana & Satov, Alexander (2021). Transitions between metastable long-run consumption behaviors in a stochastic peer-driven consumer network. Discrete and continuous dynamical systems. Series B. ISSN 1531-3492. 26(11), p. 5849–5871. doi: 10.3934/DCDSB.2021232.
Bersvendsen, Tore; Jungeilges, Jochen & Abildsnes, Eirik (2021). Empirical evaluation of home-based reablement: A review. Nordic Journal of Health Economics. ISSN 1892-9729. 9(1), p. 38–55. doi: 10.5617/njhe.7838. Full text in Research Archive
Jungeilges, Jochen; Maklakova, Elena & Perevalova, Tatyana (2021). Stochastic sensitivity of bull and bear states. Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination. ISSN 1860-711X. doi: 10.1007/s11403-020-00313-2. Full text in Research Archive
Jungeilges, Jochen; Maklakova, Elena & Perevalova, Tatyana (2021). Asset price dynamics in a “bull and bear market”. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics. ISSN 0954-349X. 56, p. 117–128. doi: 10.1016/j.strueco.2020.08.001.
Jungeilges, Jochen & Ryazanova, Tatyana (2019). Transitions in consumption behaviors in a peer-driven stochastic consumer network. Chaos, Solitons & Fractals. ISSN 0960-0779. 128, p. 144–154. doi: 10.1016/j.chaos.2019.07.042.
Jungeilges, Jochen & Ryazanova, Tatyana (2018). Output volatility and savings in a stochastic Goodwin economy. Eurasian Economic Review (EAER). ISSN 1309-422X. 8(3), p. 355–380. doi: 10.1007/s40822-017-0088-7.
Jungeilges, Jochen; Ryazanova, Tatyana; Mitrofanova, Anastasia & Popova, Irina (2018). Sensitivity Analysis of Consumption Cycles. Chaos. ISSN 1054-1500. 28(5). doi: 10.1063/1.5024033.
Ekaterinchuk, Ekaterina; Jungeilges, Jochen; Ryazanova, Tatyana & Sushko, Iryna (2018). Dynamics of a minimal consumer network with bi-directional influence. Communications in nonlinear science & numerical simulation. ISSN 1007-5704. 58, p. 107–118. doi: 10.1016/j.cnsns.2017.04.007. Show summary
In a model of interdependent consumer behavior due to Gaertner and Jungeilges (1988), Gaertner and Jungeilges (1993) an individual adjusts his preferences in response to his own past consumption decisions and the observable past consumption of another individual. The resulting 2D non-invertible demand system exhibits a rich dynamics. We focus on two special cases: The baseline case of two independent consumers and a situation in which the autonomous individual 1 is viewed as a representative member of a group that serves as a {\em normative reference group} for individual 2. The consumption behavior of individual 2 is determined by his own past consumption experience as well as by the observable consumption behavior of individual 1, who is in turn not influenced by individual 2. The associated map belongs to the class of triangular maps. Our analysis focuses on the coexistence of attractors and the mechanisms underlying qualitative transformations of attractors. Relying on a mix of analytical, numerical, and graphical methodology, we demonstrate how various bifurcations occur as the importance of the individuals' own past consumption as well as the strength of influence of individual 1 on 2 varies. Economic interpretations of the observed dynamic phenomena are emphasized.
Ekaterinchuk, Ekaterina; Jungeilges, Jochen; Ryazanova, Tatyana & Sushko, Iryna (2017). Dynamics of a minimal consumer network with uni-directional influence. Journal of evolutionary economics. ISSN 0936-9937. p. 1–27. doi: 10.1007/s00191-017-0517-5.
Jungeilges, Jochen & Ryazanova, Tatyana (2017). Noise-induced transitions in a stochastic Goodwin-type business cycle model. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics. ISSN 0954-349X. 40, p. 103–115. doi: 10.1016/j.strueco.2017.01.003.
Jungeilges, Jochen (2012). Nobels Minnepris i Økonomi 2011. In Hanisch, Thor Einar (Eds.), Agder Vitenskapsakademi. Årbok 2011. Portal forlag. ISSN 978-82-92712-69-6. p. 166–176.
Jungeilges, Jochen & Theisen, Theis (2011). State dependence in sequential equity judgements. Social Choice and Welfare. ISSN 0176-1714. 37(1), p. 97–119. doi: 10.1007/s00355-010-0482-5.
Jungeilges, Jochen & Theisen, Theis (2008). A comparative study of equity judgements in Lithuania and Norway. The Journal of Socio-Economics (JSE). ISSN 1053-5357. 37(3), p. 1090–1118. Show summary
A questionnaire-type experiment was conducted in Lithuania and Norway in order to generate two samples suitable for a comparative examiniation of equity judgements. The results reveal large differences between the two countries. Norwegian probants had a much higher propensity to decide in accordance with Rawls's second principle than had Lituanian probants. Equity judgements are also strongly dependent on the context of choice. The results are interpreted withing a framework describing the formaton of social preferences. More specifically, differences in observed equity judgements in the two countries are related to differences in history, experience and future prospects.
Jungeilges, Jochen (2007). On Chaotic Consistent Expectations Equilibria. Analyse & Kritik. Zeitschrift für Sozialtheorie. ISSN 0171-5860. 29(2). Show summary
The notion of consistent expectations equilibria (CEE) as propagated by Hommes & Sorger (1998) is reviewed. Focusing on their example of a chaotic CEE constructred in the context of a cobweb model, it is argued that such an equilibrium is a temporary one. Assuming that an agent -- modeled as an individual versatile in applying the basic tools of linear time-series econometrics -- has learned the CEE, I analyze the duration of the time period over which the agent maintains her/his beliefs concerning the perceived law of motion (AR(1)). The analysis based on numerical simulations indicates that the use of techniques rooted in the linear paradigm is sufficient to generate convincing evidence against the underlying perceived law of motion.

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Jungeilges, Jochen (2023). Long Transients in Economics and Finance.
Jungeilges, Jochen (2023). Estimating critical sensitivity of bull- and bear states in an asset market.
Nilssen, Trygve Kastberg; Jungeilges, Jochen & Ryazanova, Tatyana (2019). Modelling behavioral change in a peer-driven consumer network.
Jungeilges, Jochen (2017). Output volatility and savings in a stochastic Goodwin economy.
Bersvendsen, Tore; Jungeilges, Jochen & Abildsnes, Eirik (2016). An Econometric Analysis of Rehabilitation Measures.
Bersvendsen, Tore; Abildsnes, Eirik & Jungeilges, Jochen (2016). An Econometric Analysis of Rehabilitation Measures: A Research Protocol.
Theisen, Theis & Jungeilges, Jochen (2010). State dependence in sequential equity judgements.
Jungeilges, Jochen (2007). Selected Topics in Econometrics. Show summary
The mini course covered various multivariate stastical concepts and methods which have become popular in time-series econometrics.
Jungeilges, Jochen (2007). Sequential Equity Judgements: Evidence from Tanzania. Show summary
We report results from sequential questionnaire-type experiments designed to elicit whether probants' intuitions in connection with distributive dilemmata are in line with the equity axiom. Based on a convenience sample of N= students of Mzumbe University, we demonstrate that the propensity of subjects to decide in accordance with the equity axiom is lower than in comparable samples in Nothern Europe.
Jungeilges, Jochen (2007). Stochastic Dynamic Systems in economics: Potential and limits. Show summary
We provide an introduction to stochastic dynamic systems. It is demonstrated how such systems evolve quite naturally in economic theory, especially in growth theory. The second part of the talk deals with the problem of estimating the parameters of an iterated function system. Feasible solutions are sketched out. The conceptual advantages of modeling economic systems as stochastic dynamic systems are discussed.
Oxelheim, Lars; Randøy, Trond & Jungeilges, Jochen (2007). GLOBALIZATION OF CORPORATE GOVERNANCE: THE AMERICAN INFLUENCE ON DISMISSAL PERFORMANCE SENSITIVITY OF EUROPEAN CEOS. Show summary
This study examines how globalization of corporate governance practices influence the risk of European CEOs being dismissed. We hypothesize that the harsh monitoring of the American corporate governance system spills over to the rest of the world as a result of this globalization. We focus on direct and indirect American influence on the dismissal performance sensitivity among the 250 largest European publicly listed firms. The indirect influence is assumed to materialize via the European firms? cross-listing on American exchanges, whereas the direct influence is assumed to appear as a result of European firms? hiring of American independent board members. Both sources of influence are hypothesized to result in increased dismissal performance sensitivity. The empirical results show a significant increase in this sensitivity in companies with American board membership whereas no significant increase is found from American cross-listing.
Jungeilges, Jochen & Theisen, Theis (2007). State Dependence in Sequential Equity Judgements, Amsterdam. Center for Research in Experimental Economics and Political Decision M.
Jungeilges, Jochen & Theisen, Theis (2006). State Dependence in Sequential Equity Judgements.
Jungeilges, Jochen & Theisen, Theis (2006). State Dependence in Sequential Equity Judgements.
Randøy, Trond; Oxelheim, Lars & Jungeilges, Jochen (2006). CEO compensation and dismissal risk: A European perspective. Show summary
This study examines how globalization of corporate governance practices impact CEOs? voluntary and involuntary dismissals. Based on observations from CEO dismissals among the 250 largest European listed firms, we hypothesize that globalization in the capital market (American cross-listing) and the market for corporate control (American board membership) increase dismissal performance sensitivity. The empirical results show no significant increase in dismissal performance sensitivity from American cross-listing, but a significant increase in such risk in companies with American board membership. We argue that this increased involuntary dismissal risk in firms exposed to American boardroom influence - as compared to firms not subject to such influence - reflects institutional contagion from the American board member(s).
Randøy, Trond; Oxelheim, Lars & Jungeilges, Jochen (2006). Globalization of corporate governance: A European perspective. Show summary
This study examines how globalization of corporate governance practices impact CEOs? voluntary and involuntary dismissals. Based on observations from CEO dismissals among the 250 largest European listed firms, we hypothesize that globalization in the capital market (American cross-listing) and the market for corporate control (American board membership) increase dismissal performance sensitivity. The empirical results show no significant increase in dismissal performance sensitivity from American cross-listing, but a significant increase in such risk in companies with American board membership. We argue that this increased involuntary dismissal risk in firms exposed to American boardroom influence - as compared to firms not subject to such influence - reflects institutional contagion from the American board member(s).
Jungeilges, Jochen & Theisen, Theis (2005). A Comparative Study of Equity Judgements in Lithuania and Norway. Show summary
A questionnaire-type experiment was conducted in Lithuania and Norway in order to generate two samples suitable for a comparative examiniation of equity judgements. The results reveal large differences in equity judgements between the two countries. Norwegian probants had a much higher propensity to decide in accordance with Rawls's second principle than had Lituanian probants. Equity judgements are also strongly dependent on the context of choice. The results are interpreted withing a framework describing the formaton of (social) preferences. More specifically, differences in observed equity judgements in the two countries are related to differences in history, experience and in future prospects.
Jungeilges, Jochen & Theisen, Theis (2004). A Comparative Study of Equity Judgements in Lithuania and Norway.
Jungeilges, Jochen & Theisen, Theis (2004). A Comparative Study of Equity Judgements in Lithuania and Norway. Show summary
A questionnaire-type experiment was conducted in Lithuania and Norway in order to generate two samples suitable for a comparative examiniation of equity judgements. The results reveal large differences in equity judgements between the two countries. Norwegian probants had a much higher propensity to decide in accordance with Rawls's second principle than had Lituanian probants. Equity judgements are also strongly dependent on the context of choice. The results are interpreted withing a framework describing the formaton of (social) preferences. More specifically, differences in observed equity judgements in the two countries are related to differences in history, experience and in future prospects.
Jungeilges, Jochen & Theisen, Theis (2003). An Econometric Examination of Equity Judgements Elicited Through Experiments. Show summary
We report the results from a questionnaire-type experiment in the context of equity judgements. Norwegian students were faced with hypothetical decision situations involving various aspects of need. An all-possible-model selection strategy is used to generate parsimonious binary response models explaining the propensity to act according to an equity axiom constituent for Rawls's second principle as well as the inclination to reconsider this choice in favor of a Utilitarian alternative. The factors and education are found to play an eminent role as explanatory variables. Our results support the claim that equity judgements are context dependent.
Jungeilges, Jochen & Theisen, Theis (2003). An Econometric Examination of Equity Judgements Elicited Through Experiments. Show summary
We report the results from a questionnaire-type experiment in the context of equity judgements. Norwegian students were faced with hypothetical decision situations involving various aspects of need. An all-possible-model selection strategy is used to generate parsimonious binary response models explaining the propensity to act according to an equity axiom constituent for Rawls's second principle as well as the inclination to reconsider this choice in favor of a Utilitarian alternative. The factorsgender and education are found to play an eminent role as explanatory variables. Our results support the claim that equity judgements are context dependent.
Jungeilges, Jochen & Theisen, Theis (2003). An Econometric Examination of Equity Judgements Elicited Through Experiments. Show summary
We report the results from a questionnaire-type experiment in the context of equity judgements. Norwegian students were faced with hypothetical decision situations involving various aspects of need. An all-possible-model selection strategy is used to generate parsimonious binary response models explaining the propensity to act according to an equity axiom constituent for Rawls's second principle as well as the inclination to reconsider this choice in favor of a Utilitarian alternative. The factors gender and education are found to play an eminent role as explanatory variables. Our results support the claim that equity judgements are context dependent.
Theisen, Theis & Jungeilges, Jochen (2002). An econometric examination of equity judgements elicited through experiments. Show summary
We report the results from a questionaire-type experiment in the context of equity judgements. Norwegian students were faced with hypothetical decision situations involving various aspects of need. An all-possible model selection strategy is used to generate parsimonious binary response models explaining the propensity to act according to an equity axiom constituent for Rawls's second principle as well as the inclination to reconsider this choice in favor of a Utilitarian alternative. The factors gender and education are found to play an eminent role as explanatory variables. Our results support the claim that equity judgements are context dependent.
Jungeilges, Jochen & Theisen, Theis (2006). State Dependence in Sequential Equity Judgements. Universitetet i Agder.
Jungeilges, Jochen & Theisen, Theis (2004). A Comparative Study of Equity Judgements in Lithuania and Norway. Universitetet i Agder.
Jungeilges, Jochen & Theisen, Theis (2003). An Econometric Examination of Equity Judgements Elicited Through Experiments. Universitetet i Agder. Show summary
We report the results from a questionnaire-type experiment in the context of equity judgements. Norwegian students were faced with hypothetical decision situations involving various aspects of need. An all-possible-model selection strategy is used to generate parsimonious binary response models explaining the propensity to act according to an equity axiom constituent for Rawls's second principle as well as the inclination to reconsider this choice in favor of a Utilitarian alternative. The factorsgender and education are found to play an eminent role as explanatory variables. Our results support the claim that equity judgements are context dependent.

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Published Apr. 16, 2024 10:48 AM