Indra Nobl Øverland

• Stankovic, Tatjana; Hovi, Jon; Skodvin, Tora & Øverland, Indra Nobl (2024). Regulating production rather than consumption? Comparing the challenges of supply-side and demand-side climate agreements. Energy Research & Social Science. ISSN 2214-6296. 114. doi: 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103601.
• Blankenship, Brian; Hasan, Qaraman; Mohtadi, Soran; Øverland, Indra Nobl & Urpelainen, Johannes (2024). Oil Prices and International Conflict: Why Low Oil Revenue May Not Pacify Petrostates¹. International Interactions. ISSN 0305-0629. 50(3). doi: 10.1080/03050629.2024.2352486.
• Hasan, Qaraman; Heffron, Raphael J.; Mohtadi, Soran; Blankenship, Brian D.; Øverland, Indra Nobl & Urpelainen, Johannes (2024). Stepping into the just transition journey: The energy transition in petrostates. Energy Research & Social Science. ISSN 2214-6296. 113. doi: 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103553.
• Sabyrbekov, Rahat & Øverland, Indra Nobl (2024). Small and large friends of the EU's carbon border adjustment mechanism: Which non-EU countries are likely to support it? Energy Strategy Reviews. ISSN 2211-467X. 51. doi: 10.1016/j.esr.2024.101303.
• Vakulchuk, Roman & Øverland, Indra Nobl (2024). The failure to decarbonize the global energy education system: Carbon lock-in and stranded skill sets. Energy Research & Social Science. ISSN 2214-6296. 110, p. 103446–103446. doi: 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103446. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  The energy transition involves the transformation of professions and labour markets, which in turn depend on the availability of a workforce with the right education and competence. This study assesses how quickly global higher education is transitioning from fossil fuels to renewable energy in terms of educational content. The article is based on a review of 18,400 universities and the creation of a dataset of 6,142 universities that provide energy-specific education in 196 countries. The study compares the prevalence of educational programmes oriented towards fossil fuels and renewable energy. The findings show that the rapid adoption of renewable energy worldwide is not matched by changes in higher education, since universities continue to prioritise coal and petroleum studies. In 2019, 546 universities had faculties and/or degrees dedicated to fossil fuels whereas only 247 universities had faculties and/or degrees in renewable energy. As many as 68% of the world’s energy-focused educational degrees were oriented towards fossil fuels, and only 32% focused on renewable energy. This means that universities are failing to meet the growing demand for a clean energy workforce. At the current rate of change, energy-focused university degrees would be 100% dedicated to renewable energy only by the year 2107. Since a career may last 30-40 years, this creates a risk of long-term carbon lock-in and stranded skill sets through (mis)education. The results also indicate that developing countries lag behind developed ones in this area, even though the need for professionals trained in renewable energy is greater in developing countries. Along with lack of capital, underdeveloped regulatory frameworks for renewable energy, and entrenched fossil-fuel business interests, the mismatch between energy education and the needs of the renewable energy industry may hold back the energy transition in many developing countries.

• Tongsopit, Sopitsuda; Junlakarn, Siripha; Chaianong, Aksornchan; Øverland, Indra Nobl & Vakulchuk, Roman (2024). Prosumer solar power and energy storage forecasting in countries with limited data: The case of Thailand. Heliyon. ISSN 2405-8440. 10(2). doi: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e23997. Full text in Research Archive
• Handayani, Kamia; Øverland, Indra Nobl; Suryadi, Beni & Vakulchuk, Roman (2023). Integrating 100% renewable energy into electricity systems: A net-zero analysis for Cambodia, Laos, and Myanmar. Energy Reports. ISSN 2352-4847. 10, p. 4849–4869. doi: 10.1016/j.egyr.2023.11.005.
• Øverland, Indra Nobl & Loginova, Julia (2023). The Russian coal industry in an uncertain world: Finally pivoting to Asia? Energy Research & Social Science. ISSN 2214-6296. 102. doi: 10.1016/j.erss.2023.103150.
• Smith, Ida Dokk; Øverland, Indra Nobl & Szulecki, Kacper (2023). The EU's CBAM and Its ‘Significant Others’: Three Perspectives on the Political Fallout from Europe's Unilateral Climate Policy Initiative. Journal of Common Market Studies. ISSN 0021-9886. doi: 10.1111/jcms.13512. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  As part of the European Green Deal, the European Commission has launched a tool to protect the fulfilment of Europe's climate policy targets – the carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM). It is thought that the CBAM will spark stiff resistance from Europe's external trade partners, potentially undermining the initiative. How this plays out will depend in part on who the opponents and potential allies are – and how the European Union (EU) engages with them. But which non-EU countries have a stake in the CBAM? The criteria for selecting third countries that are relevant for the CBAM are often implicit, which can lead to contradictory policy analyses and confused climate diplomacy. This research note compares three different perspectives that result in different lists of non-EU countries that are important for the success of the CBAM. Awareness of these three perspectives amongst EU actors can help the CBAM succeed.

• Sulaimanova, Burulcha; Øverland, Indra Nobl; Sabyrbekov, Rahat & Vakulchuk, Roman (2023). Energy Transition in Central Asia: A Systematic Literature Review. In Sabyrbekov, Rahat; Øverland, Indra Nobl & Vakulchuk, Roman (Ed.), Climate Change in Central Asia: Decarbonization, Energy Transition and Climate Policy. Springer. ISSN 978-3-031-29831-8. p. 69–82. doi: 10.1007/978-3-031-29831-8_6. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  While there is abundant research on the expansion of renewable energy in developed countries, little attention has been paid to the decarbonisation of energy systems in Central Asia, despite the region’s vulnerability to climate change, its rapidly growing domestic energy demand and the abundance of natural resources essential for the energy transition. Based on a systematic review of the literature, this chapter provides a comprehensive overview of the profile and trajectory of research on energy in Central Asia between 1991 and 2022. It finds that there was a shift from focusing on fossil fuels to clean energy around 2019–2020. However, despite recent growth, research on renewables and their significance in Central Asia is still sparse. This review indicates that while American and European researchers took the lead in this field in 2012, China, Japan, Kazakhstan and Russia have emerged as the leading contributors since 2016.

• Sabyrbekov, Rahat; Øverland, Indra Nobl & Vakulchuk, Roman (2023). Central Asian Climate Policy Pledges Under the Paris Agreement: Can They Be Fulfilled? In Sabyrbekov, Rahat; Øverland, Indra Nobl & Vakulchuk, Roman (Ed.), Climate Change in Central Asia: Decarbonization, Energy Transition and Climate Policy. Springer. ISSN 978-3-031-29831-8. p. 35–49. doi: 10.1007/978-3-031-29831-8_4. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  The Central Asian region has been and will continue to be significantly impacted by climate change and all the region’s countries have pledged nation- ally determined contributions (NDCs) under the Paris agreement. This chapter aims to assess how likely Central Asian countries are to fulfil these pledges. To answer this question, we compare the NDCs to their respective national development programmes and historical trends. The results show that the countries of Central Asia vary in their ability to fulfil their pledges and that doing so will require structural changes to their energy systems, substantial investments in infrastructure and, most importantly, the alignment of their development plans with their declared climate goals. None of the countries have thus far engaged in structural reforms aimed at large-scale climate change adaptation and mitigation.

• Sabyrbekov, Rahat; Øverland, Indra Nobl & Vakulchuk, Roman (2023). Introduction to Climate Change in Central Asia. In Sabyrbekov, Rahat; Øverland, Indra Nobl & Vakulchuk, Roman (Ed.), Climate Change in Central Asia: Decarbonization, Energy Transition and Climate Policy. Springer. ISSN 978-3-031-29831-8. p. 1–11. doi: 10.1007/978-3-031-29831-8_1. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  The Central Asian region has been and will continue to be significantly impacted by climate change and all the region’s countries have pledged nation- ally determined contributions (NDCs) under the Paris agreement. This chapter aims to assess how likely Central Asian countries are to fulfil these pledges. To answer this question, we compare the NDCs to their respective national development programmes and historical trends. The results show that the countries of Central Asia vary in their ability to fulfil their pledges and that doing so will require structural changes to their energy systems, substantial investments in infrastructure and, most importantly, the alignment of their development plans with their declared climate goals. None of the countries have thus far engaged in structural reforms aimed at large-scale climate change adaptation and mitigation.

• Tarr, David G.; Kuznetsov, Dmitrii; Øverland, Indra Nobl & Vakulchuk, Roman (2023). Why carbon border adjustment mechanisms will not save the planet but a climate club and subsidies for transformative green technologies may. Energy Economics. ISSN 0140-9883. 122, p. 1–14. doi: 10.1016/j.eneco.2023.106695. Show summary

  We find that both empirical results and economic theory show that carbon border adjustment mechanisms (CBAMs) will be ineffective at meeting global goals for carbon emissions reduction; but CBAMs will be effective at improving the competitiveness of the domestic industries by assuring that imports bear equal costs of carbon pricing. We elaborate two complementary proposals that hold greater promise for meeting climate goals: (i) a Climate Club, where member countries impose a minimum price for carbon emissions at home and a tariff surcharge on all imports from non-member countries; and (ii) a 0.2%-of-GDP subsidy by high-income countries for transformative research designed to make green energy cheaper than fossil fuels. We discuss multiple paths for a Climate Club to be accommodated within the rules of the World Trade Organization and recommend use of the exception clause under GATT Article XX.

• Szulecki, Kacper & Øverland, Indra Nobl (2023). Russian nuclear energy diplomacy and its implications for energy security in the context of the war in Ukraine. Nature Energy. ISSN 2058-7546. 8(4), p. 413–421. doi: 10.1038/s41560-023-01228-5. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, the possibility of reducing Europe’s energy dependence on Russian resources has been hotly debated. The fossil fuel industries received most attention as European Union leaders first introduced gradual sanctions on Russian coal and later on oil and gas, while Russia responded with supply cuts. However, Russia’s role as a major player in the global nuclear power sector has remained largely below the sanctions radar, despite dependencies on Russian nuclear technology, uranium supplies and handling of spent nuclear fuel. Here we analyse the state nuclear company Rosatom and its subsidiaries as tools of Russian energy statecraft. We map the company’s global portfolio, then categorize countries where Russia is active according to the degree and intensity of dependence. We offer a taxonomy of long-term energy dependencies, highlighting specific security risks associated with each of them. We conclude that the war and Russia’s actions in the energy sector will undermine Rosatom’s position in Europe and damage its reputation as a reliable supplier, but its global standing may remain strong.

• Kalantzakos, Sophia; Øverland, Indra Nobl & Vakulchuk, Roman (2023). Decarbonisation and Critical Materials in the Context of Fraught Geopolitics: Europe’s Distinctive Approach to a Net Zero Future. The International Spectator: Italian Journal of International Affairs. ISSN 0393-2729. 58(1), p. 3–22. doi: 10.1080/03932729.2022.2157090. Full text in Research Archive
• Øverland, Indra Nobl; Trisos, Christopher H; Adelekan, Ibidun O; Totin, Edmond; Ayanlade, Ayansina & Efitre, Jackson [Show all 53 contributors for this article] (2022). Africa. In Pörtner, H. O.; roberts, d.c.; Tignor, M.; Poloczanska, Elvira S.; Mintenbeck, Katja; Alegria, Andres; Craig, m; Langsdorf, Stefanie; Löschke, Sina; Moller, V; Okem, Andrew & Rama, Bardhyl (Ed.), Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press. ISSN 9780521445832. p. 1285–1455. doi: 10.1017/9781009325844.011.
• Øverland, Indra Nobl (2022). Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine: Consequences for Global Decarbonization. Russian Analytical Digest. ISSN 1863-0421. doi: 10.3929/ethz-b-000550755.
• Buylova, Alexandra; Fridahl, Mathias; Nasiritousi, Naghmeh; Øverland, Indra Nobl & Reischl, Gunilla (2022). Climate action in the making: business and civil society views on the world’s first carbon border levy. Climate Action. 1(17). doi: 10.1007/s44168-022-00015-4.
• Øverland, Indra Nobl & Huda, Mirza Sadaqat (2022). Climate clubs and carbon border adjustments: a review. Environmental Research Letters. ISSN 1748-9326. 17(9). doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/ac8da8.
• Øverland, Indra; Juraev, Javlon & Vakulchuk, Roman (2022). Are renewable energy sources more evenly distributed than fossil fuels? Renewable Energy. ISSN 0960-1481. 200, p. 379–386. doi: 10.1016/j.renene.2022.09.046. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  The energy transition literature assumes that renewable energy sources are more evenly distributed globally than fossil fuels. This assumption implies that the shift from fossil fuels to renewables will enable more countries to pursue energy self-sufficiency and end their dependence on imported energy. However, if the assumption is wrong, the energy transition will depend on transboundary electricity or hydrogen trade, creating new international relationships and opportunities for both cooperation and conflict. The contribution of this study is to test the assumption of the even distribution of renewable energy resources on a quantitative empirical basis. Lorenz curves are compared and Gini coefficients calculated for three types of fossil fuels and three types of renewable energy in 161 countries. The study concludes that renewable energy is indeed more evenly distributed than fossil fuels. This finding lends support to claims that energy transition will bring about a more decentralized global energy system centered on prosumer countries with few long-distance energy relationships. However, the difference between the evenness of the distribution of renewable energy resources and that of fossil fuel reserves is not as great as the literature assumes. International trade in energy, and by extension international energy politics, will not disappear entirely.

• Vakulchuk, Roman; Øverland, Indra & Suryadi, Beni (2022). ASEAN’s energy transition: how to attract more investment in renewable energy. Energy, Ecology and Environment. ISSN 2363-7692. 8, p. 1–16. doi: 10.1007/s40974-022-00261-6. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  The energy transition is progressing slowly in the ten member states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). To achieve ASEAN’s target of 23% renewables in the primary energy supply by 2025, the region would need to invest USD 27 billion in renewable energy every year. However, the ASEAN countries attracted no more than USD 8 billion annually from 2016 to 2021. Through a comparative review of three key factors for attracting investment—renewable energy legislation, energy governance reform, and general conditions for investors—this study examines why the region’s renewable energy sector has not attracted more capital. The contribution of the article is threefold. First, it develops a new review model for assessing the business climate for renewable energy in any country. Second, it offers an update on the state of renewable energy deployment in the ASEAN countries. Third, taking into account international best practices, it identifies the obstacles and solutions to attracting investment in renewable energy in Southeast Asia. The article finds that carbon lock-in is pervasive, regulatory practices have been copy-pasted from the fossil-fuel sector to the renewables sector, and, except for Malaysia and Vietnam, no ASEAN country has implemented a major pro-renewable energy governance reform. Certain advanced renewable energy measures, such as auctions and feed-in tariffs, have been adopted in some member states, but the institutional capacity to implement them is limited. The share of renewables in the energy governance system needs to be increased.

• Smith, Ida Dokk; Øverland, Indra & Lahn, Bård Lappegård (2022). Norway’s Climate Club Quandary. Internasjonal Politikk. ISSN 0020-577X. 80(1), p. 184–196. doi: 10.23865/intpol.v80.3765. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Norges internasjonale klimapolitikk har alltid hatt som målsetting å oppnå et mest mulig enhetlig globalt klimaregime. Parisavtalen reflekterer i stedet – og bidrar til å forsterke – et fragmentert klimaregime med et mylder av nye samarbeidsformer mellom land. I denne artikkelen trekker vi frem tre trender som preger det nye klimaregimet: et skifte fra klima- til grønn industripolitikk; økende spenning mellom klima- og handelspolitikk; og tettere sammenkobling mellom klima- og petroleumspolitikk. Vi viser hvordan nye klimaklubber både lager nye spilleregler og oppstår som motsvar til disse. Vi ønsker med dette å vise hvordan et fragmentert klimaregime fører til nye rammevilkår og utfordringer for norsk klimapolitikk. Klimaklubbkvalene omfatter både problemstillinger knyttet til hvem Norge skal samarbeide med og hvordan slikt samarbeid skal formaliseres, men også konsekvensene av å samarbeide med noen fremfor andre.

• Øverland, Indra Nobl & Sabyrbekov, Rahat (2022). Know your opponent: Which countries might fight the European carbon border adjustment mechanism? Energy Policy. ISSN 0301-4215. 169. doi: 10.1016/j.enpol.2022.113175. Show summary

  The European Union (EU) plans to activate a carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) in January 2023. This is meant to secure fair competition for European energy-intensive industries, incentivize countries both inside and outside the EU to cut emissions, and hinder carbon leakage from the EU. Early reactions from some large economies suggest that CBAM will encounter significant international opposition, especially from countries whose industry is dependent on fossil fuels. The purpose of this paper is to identify which countries are likely to resist CBAM most fiercely. This is done by creating a multidimensional CBAM Opposition Index based on the following indicators: trade with the EU, carbon intensity, litigiousness in the World Trade Organization (WTO), domestic public opinion on climate change, and capacity for innovation. The analysis indicates that the following countries are most likely to mount opposition to CBAM: Iran, Ukraine, the USA, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, China, India, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Belarus. How the EU handles opposition from these countries will be decisive for the fate of CBAM. The index can serve as a tool for policymakers inside and outside the EU who need to negotiate over CBAM and want to anticipate the stances of other countries and understand their drivers.

• Szulecki, Kacper; Øverland, Indra & Smith, Ida Dokk (2022). The European Union's CBAM as a de facto Climate Club: The Governance Challenges. Frontiers in Climate. ISSN 2624-9553. 4. doi: 10.3389/fclim.2022.942583. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  The European Commission has announced far-reaching reforms to accelerate the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. Among the proposals constituting the European Green Deal is the adoption of a Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) to prevent carbon leakage. In practice, however, CBAM will not only act as a shield for the European Emissions Trading System (ETS) but also incentivize other countries to implement compatible carbon pricing schemes. We argue that the EU's CBAM thus de facto has the features of a climate club, but the current proposals and debate do not address how the club would be governed. While the literature focuses on legal and economic aspects of CBAM design, there is little debate about the governance challenges it entails. We identify two major challenges. CBAM will put pressure on trade partners to introduce carbon pricing and/or bring it into line with the price of EU ETS allowances. However, the future availability and thus price of ETS allowances is determined within the EU. Secondly, the method for calculating embedded carbon is left to the discretion of the European Commission. EU policymakers need to acknowledge the challenges that follow from setting up a de facto climate club, and that addressing them involves a trade-off between maintaining control over the direction and ambition of climate policy and CBAM's legitimacy.

• Stankovic, Tatjana; Sending, Ole Jacob & Øverland, Indra (2022). Norway’s Climate Reputation on Twitter. Internasjonal Politikk. ISSN 0020-577X. 80(1), p. 221–235. doi: 10.23865/intpol.v80.3762. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  ©2022 Tatjana Stankovic, Ole Jacob Sending og Indra Øverland. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/BY/4.0/), allowing third parties to copy and redistribute the material in any medium or format and to remix, transform, and build upon the material for any purpose, even commercially, provided the original work is properly cited and states its license.Citation: Stankovic, T., Sending, O. J. & Øverland, I. (2022). Norges klimaomdømme på Twitter. Internasjonal Politikk, 80(1), 221–235. http://dx.doi.org/10.23865/intpol.v80.3762221Årgang 80, Nummer 1, side 221–235, 2022, ISSN 1891-1757, www.tidsskriftet-ip.no, Publisert juni 2022*Kontaktinformasjon: Tatjana Stankovic, e-post: tst@nupi.noFokusartikkel – fagfellevurdertFokus: Norskklima- oguteNrikspolitikkNorges klimaomdømme på TwitterTatjana Stankovic*Norsk Utenrikspolitisk Institutt (NUPI), NorgeOle Jacob SendingNorsk Utenrikspolitisk Institutt (NUPI), NorgeIndra ØverlandNorsk Utenrikspolitisk Institutt (NUPI), NorgeSammendragI denne artikkelen undersøker vi om olje- og gassproduksjonen har negativ innvirkning på Norges klimaomdømme. Dette gjør vi ved å kartlegge mel-dinger som ble lagt ut på Twitter i forbindelse med det 26. klimatoppmøtet (COP 26) i Glasgow. For å sette Norges omdømme i perspektiv, sammenlik-ner vi Twitter-meldingene om Norge og Sverige. Studien viser at det er liten forskjell mellom meldingene som omhandler Norge og Sverige når det gjelder negative holdninger. Vi finner imidlertid to trekk som er av interesse for for-ståelsen av Norges omdømme. For det første er meldingene tematisk ulike: De dominerende temaene i meldingene som nevner Sverige handler om å fremme overgangen til grønn energi og klimaaktivisme, mens de dominerende temaene i meldingene om Norge i hovedsak handler om klimafinansiering og behovet for utfasing av produksjon av fossilt brensel. For det andre er de negative meldingene om Sverige av mer generell karakter, knyttet til kritikk av alle lands manglende omstilling, mens de negative meldingene om Norge er spesifikk, knyttet til olje- og gassproduksjon.

• Aung, Thiri Shwesin; Øverland, Indra; Vakulchuk, Roman & Xie, Yanhua (2022). The environmental burdens of special economic zones on the coastal and marine environment: A remote sensing assessment in Myanmar. Remote Sensing Applications: Society and Environment (RSASE). ISSN 2352-9385. 28. doi: 10.1016/j.rsase.2022.100809. Full text in Research Archive
• Vakulchuk, Roman; Daloz, Anne Sophie; Øverland, Indra; Sagbakken, Haakon Fossum & Standal, Karina (2022). A void in Central Asia research: climate change. Central Asian Survey. ISSN 0263-4937. doi: 10.1080/02634937.2022.2059447. Full text in Research Archive
• Handayani, Kamia; Anugrah, Pinto; Goembira, Fadjar; Øverland, Indra; Suryadi, Beni & Swandaru, Akbar (2022). Moving beyond the NDCs: ASEAN pathways to a net-zero emissions power sector in 2050. Applied Energy. ISSN 0306-2619. 311. doi: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2022.118580. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  The power sector is one of the major contributors to global greenhouse gas emissions while also being vulnerable to climate change in its own right. Accordingly, the global power sector needs to accelerate decarbonization. This paper assesses power sector pathways to net-zero emissions by 2050 for the Association of Southeast Asia Nations (ASEAN) using the Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP). In addition to simulating a net-zero emissions scenario, the paper builds reference and renewable policy scenarios, enabling an analysis of additional measures required beyond the business as usual and current policy trajectories to achieve net-zero emissions. The LEAP simulation results indicate that under the net-zero emissions scenario, ASEAN member states need to swiftly capitalize on their currently underutilized renewable energy potential to reach net-zero emissions by 2050. By then, there will have to be a substantial transformation of the technological portfolio with variable renewable energy and energy storage coming to play central roles. The LEAP simulations also indicate that renewable and energy storage technologies are more cost-competitive than carbon capture and storage for achieving the long-term net-zero emissions goal. In the LEAP modeling, GHG emissions rise until they peak in 2029, then gradually decline until reaching zero by 2050. Meanwhile, the emission abatement cost is 16 USD/ton CO2e in the renewable policy scenario and 12 USD/CO2e in the net-zero emissions scenario.

• Sagbakken, Haakon Fossum; Isataeva, Aidai; Øverland, Indra; Damar Pranadi, Aloysius; Suryadi, Beni & Vakulchuk, Roman (2021). Local and global aspects of coal in the ASEAN Countries. In Tsani, Stella & Øverland, Indra (Ed.), Handbook of Sustainable Politics and Economics of Natural Resources. Edward Elgar Publishing. ISSN 9781789908763. p. 45–63. doi: 10.4337/9781789908770.00012. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  This timely Handbook draws together insightful analyses of natural resource management challenges and solutions in the face of sustainable development targets and a changing global climate.

• Tsani, Stella & Øverland, Indra (2021). In quest of sustainable politics and economics of natural resources: a summary of contributions and future research directions. In Tsani, Stella & Øverland, Indra (Ed.), Handbook of Sustainable Politics and Economics of Natural Resources. Edward Elgar Publishing. ISSN 9781789908763. doi: https:/doi.org/10.4337/9781789908770.00008. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  This timely Handbook draws together insightful analyses of natural resource management challenges and solutions in the face of sustainable development targets and a changing global climate.

• Vakulchuk, Roman & Øverland, Indra (2021). Central Asia is a missing link in analyses of critical materials for the global clean energy transition. One Earth. ISSN 2590-3330. 4(12), p. 1678–1692. doi: 10.1016/j.oneear.2021.11.012. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  The energy transition is causing a surge in demand for minerals for clean energy technologies, giving rise to concerns about the sources and security of supplies of critical materials. Although Central Asia was one of the Soviet Union's main sources of metals and industrial minerals, it has been forgotten in contemporary global critical materials analyses. Here we review the Central Asian mineral resource base and assess its current and potential contributions to global supply chains. We find that the importance of Central Asia lies mainly in the diversity of its mineral base, which includes mineable reserves of most critical materials for clean energy applications. This renders the region important in mineral economics, security of supply, and geopolitical perspectives alike. In sum, Central Asia is likely to become a new hotspot for mineral extraction and a major global supplier of selected critical materials for clean energy technologies.

• Kozlova, M. & Øverland, Indra (2021). Combining capacity mechanisms and renewable energy support: A review of the international experience. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews. ISSN 1364-0321. 155. doi: 10.1016/j.rser.2021.111878. Full text in Research Archive
• Poussenkova, Nina & Øverland, Indra (2021). Corporate and Environmental Responsibility Among Russian Oil Companies. In Pereira, Eduardo Guedes; Spencer, Rochelle & Moses, Jonathon (Ed.), Sovereign Wealth Funds, Local Content policies and CSR. Developments in the Extractives Sector. Springer Nature. ISSN 978-3-030-56091-1. p. 545–565.
• Sabyrbekov, Rahat & Øverland, Indra (2021). Resource extraction, environmental concerns and social license to operate in Kyrgyzstan . In Sternberg, Troy; Toktomushev, Kemel & Ichinkhorloo, Byambabaatar (Ed.), The Impact of Mining Lifecycles in Mongolia and Kyrgyzstan : Political, Social, Environmental and Cultural Contexts. Routledge. ISSN 9781003097341. p. 168–182.
• Stančík, Andrej; Osicka, Jan & Øverland, Indra (2021). Villain or victim? Framing strategies and legitimation practices in the Russian perspective on the European Union’s Third Energy Package. Energy Research & Social Science. ISSN 2214-6296. doi: 10.1016/j.erss.2021.101962.
• NamDo, Thang; Do, Thang Nam; Burke, Paul J.; Nguyen, Hoang Nam; Nam Nguyen, Hoang & Øverland, Indra [Show all 9 contributors for this article] (2021). Vietnam's solar and wind power success: Policy implications for the other ASEAN countries. Energy for Sustainable Development. ISSN 0973-0826. 65. doi: 10.1016/j.esd.2021.09.002. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  This study analyzes the factors that have facilitated Vietnam's recent rapid solar and wind power expansion and draws policy insights for other member states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). A policy-mix analysis focusing on targets, incentive instruments, enabling regulations, and policy implementation is carried out, informed by semi-structured interviews with 20 Vietnamese experts during the period January–March 2021. A comparative analysis between Vietnam and the other ASEAN countries provides policy insights. Generous feed-in tariffs are found to have been a key driver, with income tax and land lease payment exemptions also being important. The main barriers include a high level of policy uncertainty and an underprepared transmission grid. Vietnam's case indicates that a strong price signal and a supportive investment environment can pave the way for rapid solar and wind power uptake. Another key lesson is that early preparation of transmission systems for solar and wind electricity is needed to maximize the potential for expanding the use of these technologies.

• Øverland, Indra; Sagbakken, Haakon Fossum; Isataeva, Aidai; Kolodzinskaia, Galina; Simpson, Nicholas Philip & Trisos, Christopher [Show all 7 contributors for this article] (2021). Funding flows for climate change research on Africa: where do they come from and where do they go? Climate and Development. ISSN 1756-5529. doi: 10.1080/17565529.2021.1976609. Full text in Research Archive
• Aung, Thiri Shwesin; Øverland, Indra & Vakulchuk, Roman (2021). Environmental performance of foreign firms: Chinese and Japanese firms in Myanmar. Journal of Cleaner Production. ISSN 0959-6526. 312(127701). doi: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2021.127701. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Little is known about how the environmental approaches of foreign investors in developing countries are formed. The objective of this study is to conceptualize and investigate the drivers of the environmental performance of foreign firms. This is done through a comparative analysis of the environmental profiles of Chinese and Japanese firms in Myanmar. Applying institutional and resource-based theories, the study investigates the complex and multifaceted roles that domestic regulations and internal resources of firms play in their environmental performance. The study contributes to the literature on corporate environmental behaviour by constructing a novel set of environmental variables connected with FDI. The research is based on survey data covering 296 Chinese and 125 Japanese companies operating in Myanmar. The data are analysed using a hierarchical multiple linear regression. It is found that Japanese companies tend to adopt all-inclusive and comprehensive strategies driven by both regulatory pressure and firm capacity when addressing environmental issues, while the environmental choices of Chinese companies tend to be driven by intra-firm resources. For Chinese companies, neither ownership type nor operating in a polluting industrial sector necessarily influence the environmental profile, whereas both of these variables had significant effects on the environmental performance of Japanese firms. The findings indicate that both resource-based and institutional theories are useful when assessing the influence of environmental regulations on FDI in developing countries.

• Aung, Thiri Shwesin; Øverland, Indra; Vakulchuk, Roman & Xie, Yanhua (2021). Using satellite data and machine learning to study conflict-induced environmental and socioeconomic destruction in data-poor conflict areas: The case of the Rakhine conflict. Environmental Research Communications (ERC). ISSN 2515-7620. 3(2). doi: 10.1088/2515-7620/abedd9. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  This paper studies socioeconomic and environmental changes in the neighboring areas Bangladesh-Myanmar border from 2012 to 2019, thus covering the period before and after the 2017 Rakhine conflict in Myanmar and outflux of refugees across the border to Bangladesh. Given the scarcity and costliness of traditional data collection methods in such conflict areas, the paper uses a novel methodological model based on very-high-resolution satellite imagery, nighttime satellite imagery, and machine-learning algorithms to generate reliable and reusable data for comparative assessment of the impacts of the Rakhine conflict. Assessments of welfare and environmental risks using this approach can be accurate and scalable across different regions and times when other data are unavailable. Key findings are: the general livelihood situation has worsened and income sources shrunk in Rakhine; forced migration damaged the ecologically fragile regions in the two countries; the destruction of aquaculture wetland ecosystems is observed in Rakhine; the deforestation rate reached 20% in Rakhine and 13% on the Bangladeshi side of the border. The results can provide guidance to policymakers and international actors as they work to repatriate the victims of the conflict in Rakhine and minimize the conflict’s security and environmental consequences. The methodology can be applied to other data-poor conflict and refugee areas in the world.

• Øverland, Indra; Bourmistrov, Anatoli; Dale, Brigt; Irlbacher-Fox, Stephanie; Juraev, Javlon & Podgaiskii, Eduard [Show all 10 contributors for this article] (2021). The Arctic Environmental Responsibility Index: A method to rank heterogenous extractive industry companies for governance purposes. Business Strategy and the Environment (BSE). ISSN 0964-4733. 30, p. 1623–1643. doi: 10.1002/bse.2698. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  The Arctic Environmental Responsibility Index (AERI) covers 120 oil, gas, and mining companies involved in resource extraction north of the Arctic Circle in Alaska, Canada, Greenland, Finland, Norway, Russia, and Sweden. It is based on an international expert perception survey among 173 members of the International Panel on Arctic Environmental Responsibility (IPAER), whose input is processed using segmented string relative ranking (SSRR) methodology. Equinor, Total, Aker BP, ConocoPhillips, and BP are seen as the most environmentally responsible companies, whereas Dalmorneftegeophysica, Zarubejneft, ERIELL, First Ore-Mining Company, and Stroygaz Consulting are seen as the least environmentally responsible. Companies operating in Alaska have the highest average rank, whereas those operating in Russia have the lowest average rank. Larger companies tend to rank higher than smaller companies, state-controlled companies rank higher than privately controlled companies, and oil and gas companies higher than mining companies. The creation of AERI demonstrates that SSRR is a low-cost way to overcome the challenge of indexing environmental performance and contributing to environmental governance across disparate industrial sectors and states with divergent environmental standards and legal and political systems.

• Øverland, Indra; Sagbakken, Haakon Fossum; Chan, Hoy-Yen; Merdekawati, Monika; Suryadi, Beni & Utama, Nuki Agya [Show all 7 contributors for this article] (2021). The ASEAN climate and energy paradox. Energy and Climate Change. ISSN 2666-2787. 2. doi: 10.1016/j.egycc.2020.100019. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  This article carries out a multisectoral qualitative analysis (MSQA) and policy integration analysis of six sectors important for climate mitigation in Southeast Asia in order to assess the status of the climate-energy nexus in the region. It concludes that Southeast Asia will be heavily affected by climate change but the mitigation efforts of the member states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) are incommensurate with the threat they face. Their nationally determined contributions under the Paris Agreement are modest, they have a low proportion of renewable energy in their energy mixes, a modest target for raising the share of renewable energy and they are not likely to reach this target. The ASEAN countries have also been slow to adopt electric vehicles and to accede to the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), while continuing to burn their forests, channel subsidies to fossil fuels and invest in new coal power plants. If ASEAN accelerated decarbonization, it could seize business opportunities, secure its standing in the international political system and climate justice discussions, and increase its chances of reaching the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

• Sabyrbekov, Rahat & Øverland, Indra (2020). Why choose to cycle in a low-income country? Sustainability. ISSN 2071-1050. 12(18). doi: 10.3390/SU12187775.
• Øverland, Indra & Tsani, Stella (2020). Sovereign Wealth Funds and Public Financing for Climate Action. Encyclopedia of the UN Sustainable Development Goals. ISSN 2523-7403. Climate Action. doi: 10.1007/978-3-319-71063-1_130-1.
• Mark, SiuSue; Øverland, Indra & Vakulchuk, Roman (2020). Sharing the Spoils: Winners and Losers in the Belt and Road Initiative in Myanmar. Journal of Current Southeast Asian Affairs. ISSN 1868-1034. 39(3), p. 381–404. doi: 10.1177/1868103420962116. Full text in Research Archive
• Øverland, Indra & Sabyrbekov, Rahat (2020). Why Choose to Cycle in a Middle-Income Country? Sustainability. ISSN 2071-1050. 12, p. 1–14. doi: 10.3390/su12187775. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Research on the adoption of the bicycle as a means of transport has been booming in high-income countries. However, little is known about bicycle adoption in lower-income countries where air pollution is high and cycling infrastructure is poor. Understanding the drivers of cycling adoption in developing economies can increase the efficiency of transport policies while reducing local air pollution, improving health, and cutting greenhouse gas emissions. The objective of this study is to identify the factors affecting cycling uptake in a low-income country using the city of Bishkek in Kyrgyzstan as a case study. The analysis is based on the Theory of Planned Behavior, a questionnaire-based survey of 900 respondents, factor analysis, and a logit model. In contrast to studies carried out in developed countries, this study finds that students are less likely to adopt cycling than other population groups. Other findings suggest that support for public transport, a desire for regular exercise and perceptions of the environmental benefits of cycling increase the probability of the use of cycling as a mode of transport in a low-income country. The paper also identifies positive and negative perceptions of cycling among cyclists and non-cyclists.

• Szulecki, Kacper & Øverland, Indra (2020). Energy democracy as a process, an outcome and a goal: A conceptual review. Energy Research & Social Science. ISSN 2214-6296. 69, p. 1–14. doi: 10.1016/j.erss.2020.101768. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  ‘Energy democracy’ has evolved from a slogan used by activists demanding a greater say in energy-related decision-making to a term used in policy documents and scholarly literature on energy governance and energy transitions. This article reviews the academic literature using a combination of three methodological elements: (1) keyword searches of major bibliographical databases for quantification purposes; (2) an innovative method referred to as ‘circulation tracing’ to assess impact; and (3) in-depth discussion of the theoretical underpinnings, implications and interconnections of different parts of the literature. A conceptual framework is developed around three divergent understandings of the term ‘energy democracy’: (1) a process driven forwards by a popular movement; (2) an outcome of decarbonisation; and (3) a goal or ideal to which stakeholders aspire. The review also highlights some weaknesses of the literature: fragmentation between its European and American branches, which barely relate to each other; implicit or absent linkages between ‘energy democracy’ and broader theories of democracy; a tendency to idealise societal grassroots; confusion about the roles of the state, private capital and communities; and lack of attention to the threat posed by energy populism. Proponents should not assume that more energy democracy will inherently mean faster decarbonisation, improved energy access or social wellbeing. Finally, more emphasis should be placed on the role of research in providing evidence to ground energy democracy-related analyses and discussions.

• Øverland, Indra; Kozlova, Mariia & Collan, Mikael (2020). Russian Renewable Energy: Regulations and outcomes. In Hunter, Tina; Herrera Anchustegui, Ignacio; Crossley, Penelope & Alvarez, Gloria M (Ed.), Routledge Handbook of Energy Law. Routledge. ISSN 9781138324459. p. 201–217. Full text in Research Archive
• Øverland, Indra; Bradshaw, Michael; Kuzemko, Caroline; Bridge, Gavin; Goldthau, Andreas & Jewell, Jessica [Show all 9 contributors for this article] (2020). Covid-19 and the politics of sustainable energy transitions. Energy Research & Social Science. ISSN 2214-6296. 68, p. 1–7. doi: 10.1016/j.erss.2020.101685. Full text in Research Archive
• Øverland, Indra & Krutikhin, Mikhail (2020). OPEC and Russia: A Happy Pro Forma Marriage. In Garavini, Giuliano & Claes, Dag Harald (Ed.), Handbook of OPEC and the Global Energy Order. Routledge. ISSN 9780367195656. p. 241–251. Full text in Research Archive
• Van de Graaf, Thijs; Øverland, Indra; Scholten, Daniel & Westphal, Kirsten (2020). The new oil? The geopolitics and international governance of hydrogen. Energy Research & Social Science. ISSN 2214-6296. 70. doi: 10.1016/j.erss.2020.101667. Full text in Research Archive
• Scholten, Daniel; Bazilian, Morgan; Øverland, Indra & Westphal, Kirsten (2020). The geopolitics of renewables: New board, new game. Energy Policy. ISSN 0301-4215. 138. doi: 10.1016/j.enpol.2019.111059. Show summary

  This policy perspective sums up the main input of four members of the Research Panel for IRENA's Global Commission on the Geopolitics of the Energy Transformation. The geographic and technical characteristics of renewable energy systems are fundamentally different from those of coal, oil, and natural gas. This has implications for interstate energy relations and will require early attention if states are to exploit opportunities and address challenges. We point to six clusters of renewables' geopolitical implications that will manifest themselves over different time horizons. Overall, a generally positive disruption is foreseen, but also one that raises new energy security challenges. Moreover, while renewables will eventually render energy relations more horizontal and polycentric, achieving a smooth transition will not be easy. Renewables alter arenas of energy interaction, transforming markets and shifting trade partners, and reshape patterns of cooperation and conflict among countries. One possible outcome is a world of continental-sized grid communities made up of prosumer countries that continuously strategize between secure domestic production and cheap imports. Political action is required to manage, inter alia, industrial competition, stranded assets, availability of electricity and storage capacity, critical materials, and rivalry over ownership of key infrastructure assets.

• Vakulchuk, Roman; Øverland, Indra & Scholten, Daniel (2020). Renewable energy and geopolitics: A review. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews. ISSN 1364-0321. 122, p. 1–12. doi: 10.1016/j.rser.2019.109547. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  This article reviews the literature on the geopolitics of renewable energy. It finds that while the roots of this literature can be traced back to the 1970s and 1980s, most of it has been published from 2010 onwards. The following aggregate conclusions are extracted from the literature: renewable energy has many advantages over fossil fuels for international security and peace; however, renewable energy is thought to exacerbate security risks and geopolitical tensions related to critical materials and cybersecurity; former hydrocarbon exporters will likely be the greatest losers from the energy transition. Many of the reviewed publications share some weaknesses: a failure to define “geopolitics”; an unwarranted assumption that very little has been published in the field previously; limited use of established forecasting, scenario-building or foresight methodologies; a lack of recognition of the complexity of the field; a lack of theorisation. Most authors do not distinguish between the geopolitical risks associated with different types of renewable energy, and only a few distinguish clearly between the geopolitics of the transitional phase and the geopolitics of a post-energy transition world. A disproportionately large part of the literature is dedicated to critical materials and cybersecurity, while only a small part concerns the decline of former fossil fuel powers. Among those publications that do discuss the decline of fossil fuels, there is also an over-focus on oil producers and a lack of attention to the countries that rely heavily on coal, for example Australia, China, Germany, Indonesia, Poland and the United States.

• Øverland, Indra & Sovacool, Benjamin K. (2019). The misallocation of climate research funding. Energy Research & Social Science. ISSN 2214-6296. 62. doi: 10.1016/j.erss.2019.101349. Full text in Research Archive
• Øverland, Indra & Poussenkova, Nina (2019). Reyting gotovnosti k peremenam: Sposobny li rossiyskiye neftyanye kompanii adaptirovatsya k novym realiyam mirovykh energeticheskikh rynkov (Are Russian oil companies able to adapt to the new realities of global energy markets). Oil and capital. ISSN 1561-8838. 258(6).
• Øverland, Indra; Bazilian, Morgan; Ilimbek Uulu, Talgat; Vakulchuk, Roman & Westphal, Kirsten (2019). The GeGaLo index: Geopolitical gains and losses after energy transition. Energy Strategy Reviews. ISSN 2211-467X. 26, p. 1–16. doi: 10.1016/j.esr.2019.100406. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  This article presents the GeGaLo index of geopolitical gains and losses that 156 countries may experience after a full-scale transition to renewable energy. The following indicators are considered for inclusion in the index: fossil fuel production, fossil fuel reserves, renewable energy resources, governance, and conflict. Some of these represent potential gains; some represent losses; and some the capacity of countries to handle changes in geopolitical strength. Five alternative versions of the index are developed to work out the optimal design. First, the energy resource indicators are combined with equal weights to create two simple versions of the index. Next, governance and conflict indicators are included to create three more complex versions of the index. The index provides useful pointers for strategic energy and foreign policy choices: geopolitical power will be more evenly distributed after an energy transition; Iceland will gain most; Russia may be one of the main holders of stranded geopolitical assets; China and the USA will lose more geopolitically than foreseen by other analyses. The index also indicates a lack of emphasis in parts of the literature on space for renewable energy infrastructure and on domestically sourced coal for the current strength of countries such as China and the United States.

• Øverland, Indra & Juraev, Javlon (2019). Algorithm for producing rankings based on expert surveys. Algorithms. ISSN 1999-4893. 12(1), p. 1–14. doi: 10.3390/a12010019. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  This paper develops an automated algorithm to process input data for segmented string relative rankings (SSRRs). The purpose of the SSRR methodology is to create rankings of countries, companies, or any other units based on surveys of expert opinion. This is done without the use of grading systems, which can distort the results due to varying degrees of strictness among experts. However, the original SSRR approach relies on manual application, which is highly laborious and also carries a risk of human error. This paper seeks to solve this problem by further developing the SSRR approach by employing link analysis, which is based on network theory and is similar to the PageRank algorithm used by the Google search engine. The ranking data are treated as part of a linear, hierarchical network and each unit receives a score according to how many units are positioned below it in the network. This approach makes it possible to efficiently resolve contradictions among experts providing input for a ranking. A hypertext preprocessor (PHP) script for the algorithm is included in the article’s appendix. The proposed methodology is suitable for use across a range of social science disciplines, especially economics, sociology, and political science.

• Vakulchuk, Roman & Øverland, Indra (2019). China’s Belt and Road Initiative through the lens of Central Asia. In Cheung, Fanny M. & Hong, Ying-yi (Ed.), Regional Connection under the Belt and Road Initiative. The Prospects for Economic and Financial Cooperation. Routledge. ISSN 9781138607491. p. 115–133. doi: 10.4324/9780429467172-5. Show summary

  Has the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), launched by China in 2013, changed the perception of China among local actors in Central Asia? There are numerous internal problems and contradictions among the Central Asian countries and the region remains one of the least integrated in the world. This poses serious challenges to BRI but also offers opportunities for enhancing regional connectivity and integration. Although there has been some research and even more media coverage of BRI, little is known about how Central Asians perceive BRI. This chapter fills some of these gaps and analyzes the present state of relations between the Central Asian countries and China and collects and systematizes perceptions of Beijing and BRI among Central Asian stakeholders. The analysis focuses on economic cooperation, infrastructure and educational initiatives, as they as they are among BRI's main pillars. The main conclusion is that current attitudes towards China have been formed within the framework of bilateral relations that started in 1991, and there has so far been no major shift in the perception of China in Central Asia since BRI was launched. Whereas the broader public expects more economic opportunities from BRI and there has been more discussion of China's role in Central Asia after 2013, local communities remain uninformed and weakly connected to the high-level interaction between the Chinese and Central Asian governments.

• Øverland, Indra (2018). EU climate and energy policy: new challenges for old energy suppliers. In Godzimirski, Jakub M. (Eds.), New Political Economy of Energy in Europe. Power to Project, Power to Adapt. Palgrave Macmillan. ISSN 978-3-319-93360-3. p. 73–102. doi: 10.1007/978-3-319-93360-3_4. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  This edited collection details and analyses the dramatic changes that the international political economy of energy has undergone in the past decade. This change began with the increasing assertiveness of Russia when the oil price rose above the $100 mark in 2008. This, combined with the rise of shale oil and gas, made the USA all but self-sufficient in terms of fossil fuels. The collapse of the oil price in 2014-15, Saudi Arabia’s new strategy of defending its market share and the increasingly tense and controversial relationship between the West and Russia all worked to further strengthen the geopolitical dimension of energy in Europe. The global result is a world in which geopolitics play a bigger part than ever before; the central question the authors of this volume grapple with is how the EU – and European small states – can deal with this.

• Øverland, Indra (2018). The geopolitics of renewable energy: Debunking four emerging myths. Energy Research & Social Science. ISSN 2214-6296. 49, p. 36–40. doi: 10.1016/j.erss.2018.10.018. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  This article seeks to nip in the bud four emerging myths about the geopolitics of the rise of renewable energy and the concomitant increase in electricity usage. The article presents alternative perspectives, arguing that (1) the risk of geopolitical competition over critical materials for renewable energy is limited; (2) the resource curse as we know it from the petroleum sector will not necessarily reappear in many countries in connection with renewable energy; (3) transboundary electricity cut-offs will mostly be unsuitable as a geopolitical weapon; and (4) it is not clear that growing use of renewable energy will exacerbate cyber-security risks. In all four areas, the evolving literature could place more emphasis on uncertainty and risks and less on one-sided scenarios and maximization of threats.

• Øverland, Indra & Kubayeva, Gulaikhan (2018). Did China Bankroll Russia’s Annexation of Crimea? The Role of Sino-Russian Energy Relations. In Blakkisrud, Helge & Rowe, Elana Tovah Wilson (Ed.), Russia's Turn to the East - Domestic Policymaking and Regional Cooperation. Palgrave Pivot. ISSN 978-3-319-69790-1. p. 95–118. doi: 10.1007/978-3-319-69790-1_6. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  This chapter is an empirical analysis of energy cooperation between China and Russia, centred on the Ukrainian crisis as a defining event of the partnership. Despite China’s officially neutral political stance on Crimea, the increased frequency of meetings to discuss joint energy projects and the signing of the largest energy deal in world history created the impression that China actively stepped in and supplied the necessary financing to get Russia through sanctions over Crimea and the oil price collapse of 2014–2016. The chapter assesses this hypothesis by examining the long-term trends in lending, investments and trade trends between the two countries, and by taking a closer look at Chinese involvement in four concrete energy projects managed by some of the main Russian energy companies: Power of Siberia, Yamal LNG, Vankor and ESPO. While there is evidence of increased Chinese investments in Russia and a surge of Russian oil imports to China after the annexation, the authors conclude that China was not the major force keeping Russia’s wheels turning during the pre- and post-Crimea years. The involvement of China in the major Russian energy projects was planned and negotiated long before the annexation of Crimea. The authors therefore argue that China did not step in to bankroll Russia after Crimea, instead long-term trends in cooperation simply continued. On the other hand, clearly the long-term growth in cooperation between the two countries reduces Russia’s dependency on the West and provides greater elbowroom for its foreign policy.

• Øverland, Indra (2018). Lonely Minds: Natural Resource Governance without Input from Society. In Øverland, Indra (Eds.), Public Brainpower: Civil Society and Natural Resource Management. Palgrave Macmillan. ISSN 9783319606262. p. 387–407. doi: 10.1007/978-3-319-60627-9_21. Show summary

  This concluding chapter draws together the threads from the 18 case studies of oil- and gas-producing countries, relating them to the theoretical concept of ‘public brainpower’ and the arguments presented in the introductory chapter. It elaborates on the concept of public brainpower in greater detail, adding important caveats related to some possible detrimental effects of public debate: volatility, polarization, populism and mock democracy. Ten tenets on how to achieve public brainpower are formulated, and a ranking of the public brainpower of 33 resource-rich countries is presented. The chapter rounds off with suggestions for further research. Keywords: natural resources, oil, gas, petroleum governance, civil society, public brainpower, ranking, populism, technocracy, norms, polarization, hybrid regimes, mock democracy, ranking

• Øverland, Indra (2018). Variations on Public Brainpower: Findings from Country Case Studies of Oil- and Gas-Producing Countries. In Øverland, Indra (Eds.), Public Brainpower: Civil Society and Natural Resource Management. Palgrave Macmillan. ISSN 9783319606262. p. 369–386. doi: 10.1007/978-3-319-60627-9_20. Show summary

  This chapter sums up the 18 case-study chapters that make up the bulk of this volume and prepares the ground for the concluding chapter. It begins by reviewing and highlighting the case-study findings, followed by notes and reflections on some general challenges encountered in the preparation of the book and the research conducted for the case studies. Inaccessibility of information and lack of expertise in some countries indicate a lack of available minds and voices to record, analyse, comment on and propose changes to petroleum policy in those countries. The impact of censorship extends well beyond the borders of authoritarian states, affecting, for instance, the statements and publications of foreign experts who may fear losing access to visas and contacts in countries where they have spent their entire careers building up their professional competence. Keywords: censorship, petroleum history, authoritarianism, Algeria, Angola, Azerbaijan, Canada, Colombia, Egypt, Iraq, Kazakhstan, Libya, Netherlands, Nigeria, Norway, Qatar, Russia, Saudi Arabia, UAE, UK, Venezuela, public brainpower, natural resources, oil, gas, petroleum governance

• Øverland, Indra & Poussenkova, Nina (2018). Russia: Public Debate and the Petroleum Sector. In Øverland, Indra (Eds.), Public Brainpower: Civil Society and Natural Resource Management. Palgrave Macmillan. ISSN 9783319606262. p. 261–289. doi: 10.1007/978-3-319-60627-9_15. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  In Russia, civil society engagement with the petroleum sector is surprisingly rich and varied for a country that is ranked low on most democracy-related indicators. This chapter finds that there is a lively and varied public debate, with business associations, research institutes, independent experts, indigenous organizations and the few surviving independent media actively and often competently analysing and commenting on a broad range of issues related to the oil and gas sector. Russians were early users of social media, which occasionally also function as a platform for discussion of petroleum policy issues. However, the real impact of civil society on decision-making and policy formulation in the petroleum sector is not as great as the diversity of actors and discussion might imply. One key reason is the tight government control over mainstream media outlets. The situation for free speech and civil society worsened steadily from around 2004 to 2016. As in neighbouring Kazakhstan, the Russian population puts a high premium on stability over freedom. While a central concern in this book is whether the media and civil society have any influence on the petroleum sector, in Russia the paradoxical situation is that the relationship is often reversed: the gas company Gazprom, rather than another organizational vehicle, is used by the government to control key mass media; and the oil company Yukos played a central role in promoting civil society until its main owner Mikhail Khodorkovskiy was arrested and the company was carved up. Keywords: Russia, natural resources, oil, gas, petroleum governance, civil society, public debate, stability, Gazprom, Yukos, social media, Nemtsov, authoritarianism

• Øverland, Indra (2018). Norway: Public Debate and the Management of Petroleum Resources and Revenues. In Øverland, Indra (Eds.), Public Brainpower: Civil Society and Natural Resource Management. Palgrave Macmillan. ISSN 9783319606262. p. 217–245. doi: 10.1007/978-3-319-60627-9_13. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  This chapter assesses the importance of civil society involvement and public debate for Norwegian petroleum governance. It finds that during the early years of the country’s oil and gas development most important choices were made by a small number of decision-makers in government with little input from the broader society. The attitude of government officials was therefore decisive for Norway’s early successes. During the two first decades of Norway’s petroleum era, also economists at the Ministry of Finance, the Norwegian School of Economics, Statistics Norway and the University of Oslo played important roles. One of the greatest successes of Norwegian oil and gas governance, the sovereign wealth fund, was created by technocrats in interaction with politicians. However, over time, and in a way similar to the Netherlands, civil society and public debate came to play more influential roles. What characterizes contemporary Norwegian petroleum governance is that it has many legs to stand on: an active and diverse civil society, free and diverse media, many political parties representing differing interests, numerous institutions of research and higher education and, importantly, a strong technocracy inside and outside government. In combination, these legs provide for both reliability and dynamism, as Norwegian petroleum governance is constantly evolving. Finally, a key aspect of Norway’s Nordic model is constant compromise – which is difficult to achieve in more polarized societies. Keywords: Norway, natural resources, oil, gas, petroleum governance, civil society, Lofoten, sovereign wealth fund, environmentalism, technocracy, populism, democracy, parliament, political parties, media, democracy, decision-making

• Øverland, Indra (2018). Introduction: Civil Society, Public Debate and Natural Resource Management. In Øverland, Indra (Eds.), Public Brainpower: Civil Society and Natural Resource Management. Palgrave Macmillan. ISSN 9783319606262. p. 1–22. doi: 10.1007/978-3-319-60627-9_1. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  The introductory chapter establishes the analytical framework for this edited volume. The literature on the resource curse and institutions is briefly discussed, along with the work on civil society and the public sphere by Almond and Verba, Dahl, Habermas and Putnam. Drawing on these classics, the theoretical concept of ‘public brainpower’ is formulated. The main pillar of public brainpower is polycentricity, or the coexistence of many different public actors freely expressing their thoughts: individual citizens, political parties, trade unions, charities, companies, research institutes, religious institutions, mass media and government institutions. The more polycentric a society is, the greater is its brainpower: its memory becomes more comprehensive and multifaceted, different actors can perform quality control of each other’s ideas and arguments, and it is more difficult to repress challenging views. Above all, a polycentric society has a broader base for creativity. The greater the public brainpower of a society, the better its management of natural resources. Finally, the 18 case studies of oil- and gas-producing countries are presented, along with the methodology and definitions of key terminology used throughout the volume. Keywords: public brainpower, civil society, public debate, natural resources, resource curse, oil, gas, petroleum governance, Habermas, Dahl, Putnam

• Øverland, Indra & Reischl, Gunilla (2018). A Place in the Sun? IRENA’s Position in the Global Energy Governance Landscape. International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics. ISSN 1567-9764. 18(3), p. 335–350. doi: 10.1007/s10784-018-9388-y. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  The International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), created in 2009, is the only intergovernmental organization dedicated to renewable energy. Drawing on several new datasets, this article explores IRENA in the context of three other major international energy organizations: the International Atomic Energy Agency, the International Energy Agency and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. Through this analysis, several empirical approaches to comparing international energy organizations are tried out. Direct comparison between IRENA other international energy organizations is found to be problematic as each organization is different and comparisons inevitably encounter apples and oranges type issues. The study finds that IRENA’s niche in international renewable energy governance is not yet fully carved out, but that the organization’s mandate and institutional structure, as well as recent international developments, indicate that it may grow rapidly in importance.

• Vakulchuk, Roman & Øverland, Indra (2018). Kazakhstan: Civil Society and Natural Resource Policy in Kazakhstan. In Øverland, Indra (Eds.), Public Brainpower: Civil Society and Natural Resource Management. Palgrave Macmillan. ISSN 9783319606262. p. 143–162. doi: https:/doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-60627-9_9. Show summary

  In Kazakhstan, civil society is held back and has had a limited role in the management of the petroleum sector. As this chapter notes, civil society has had little experience of promoting its own interests vis-à-vis the state, and public discussion of natural resource issues has been mainly government-driven. The fact that Kazakhstan made a notable step forward—from being a collapsing socialist economy in the 1990s to becoming a regional economic player with improved social and economic performance—has helped to legitimize non-transparent natural resource policies. As long as the socio-economic situation continues to improve or remains stable, the non-transparent management of natural resources is likely to be accepted by the population, which, like the Russian population, puts a premium on stability. The relative passivity of civil society has been compensated by Kazakhstan’s exposure to international initiatives and organizations such as the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), and numerous UN agencies. As in Azerbaijan, the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI) has provided a platform for some civil society engagement with industry and government.

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• Sabyrbekov, Rahat; Øverland, Indra Nobl & Vakulchuk, Roman (2023). Climate Change in Central Asia: Decarbonization, Energy Transition and Climate Policy. Springer. ISBN 978-3-031-29831-8. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  This chapter provides a broad introduction to the impact of climate change in Central Asia, a region that has been experiencing a greater rise in temperatures than other parts of the world. The chapter shows how climate change represents a significant threat to Central Asia, exacerbating existing economic and environmental challenges and fueling regional tensions over resource management. Inefficient water resource management at the national level and limited regional collaboration on the management of water resources, coupled with state capacities that remain insuffi- cient to tackle climate change impacts, compound water-related tensions between the countries in the region. The chapter also shows how decarbonisation efforts in Central Asia are still in their early stages, with coal remaining a primary source of energy. Although the Central Asian countries have announced decarbonisation targets and adopted green economy strategies and programmes to reduce green- house gas emissions, a large-scale clean energy transition remains unlikely in the short term. The chapter concludes by identifying a lack of scholarship on climate change in Central Asia, which limits the development of a coherent approach to climate change mitigation and adaptation and evidence-based decision-making in the region. The chapter argues that a more coordinated approach to tackling climate change across the region is needed, requiring closer collaboration and more effective joint management of natural resources by the five Central Asian states. Finally, the chapter presents the chapters in the rest of the book.

• Tsani, Stella & Øverland, Indra (2021). Handbook of Sustainable Politics and Economics of Natural Resources. Edward Elgar Publishing. ISBN 9781789908763. Show summary

  This timely Handbook draws together insightful analyses of natural resource management challenges and solutions in the face of sustainable development targets and a changing global climate.

• Øverland, Indra & Poussenkova, Nina (2020). Russian Oil Companies in an Evolving World: The Challenge of change. Edward Elgar Publishing. ISBN 978 1 78897 800 2. 264 p. Full text in Research Archive
• Øverland, Indra (2018). Public Brainpower: Civil Society and Natural Resource Management. Palgrave Macmillan. ISBN 9783319606262. 428 p.

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• Szulecki, Kacper; Øverland, Indra Nobl & Aldal, Malin Øren (2023). Comparing Nationally Determined Contributions under the Paris Agreement: A Systematic Review (and Methodological Proposal?).
• Szulecki, Kacper & Øverland, Indra (2021). The Nuclear Energy Weapon: Russia’s Plan B in a Decarbonizing World?
• Szulecki, Kacper & Øverland, Indra (2021). Climate Club Europe : Global implications of the European Green Deal and governance strategies for a ‘de facto climate club’.
• Szulecki, Kacper & Øverland, Indra (2020). Energy Democracy and its Limits.
• Vakulchuk, Roman; Isataeva, Aidai; Kolodzinskaia, Galina; Øverland, Indra & Sabyrbekov, Rahat (2022). Fossil Fuels in Central Asia: Trends and Energy Transition Risks. Central Asia Regional Data Review . Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  This data article provides an overview of fossil fuel trends in Central Asia from 2010 to 2019. Data on the production, consumption, export and import of coal, natural gas and oil are summarised for Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. While promoting renewable energy, Central Asia continues to rely on and expand the use of coal, natural gas and oil with no major phase-out plans yet on the horizon.

• Sending, Ole Jacob; Bang, Guri; Melchior, Arne; Spets, Andrine; Svendsen, Øyvind & Sverdrup, Ulf [Show all 7 contributors for this article] (2021). EUs grønne giv – implikasjoner for norsk europapolitikk. NUPI. ISSN 0800-000X. 2021(07). Full text in Research Archive
• Vakulchuk, Roman; Chan, Hoy-Yen; Kresnawan, Muhammad Rizki; Merdekawati, Monika; Øverland, Indra & Sagbakken, Haakon Fossum [Show all 9 contributors for this article] (2020). Vietnam: Six Ways to Keep Up the Renewable Energy Investment Success. ASEAN Centre for Energy (ACE). Policy Brief No 13.. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Vietnam is one of the most attractive destinations for renewable energy investment in ASEAN. In 2018, the country attracted USD 5.2 billion. In 2019, the share of renewable energy in the energy mix was 9%, thus already exceeding the 7% target set for 2020. If Vietnam is to continue its success and compete globally for investment in renewable energy, it will need to further develop its investment climate. The competition is heating up in this area, and an increasing number of countries have similar conditions and frameworks for renewable energy investment. Therefore, every improvement may help boost a market’s relative attractiveness. We propose six actions that can further enhance the attractiveness of Vietnam’s renewable energy sector for investment from both domestic and international investors: prioritise renewable energy in the governance system; streamline the regulatory framework; facilitate market entry for investors; improve transparency and communication about the investment regime; improve grid expansion planning; join IRENA to further build the capacity for renewable energy governance.

• Vakulchuk, Roman; Chan, Hoy-Yen; Kresnawan, Muhammad Rizki; Merdekawati, Monika; Øverland, Indra & Sagbakken, Haakon Fossum [Show all 9 contributors for this article] (2020). Thailand: Improving the Business Climate for Renewable Energy Investment. ASEAN Centre for Energy (ACE). Policy Brief No 12.. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Thailand is among ASEAN’s renewable energy leaders. It attracted more than USD 10.7 billion of investment in renewable energy from 2006 to 2018. The country’s total installed capacity of renewable energy represented over 60% of the total capacity of ASEAN in 2019. Renewables accounted for 15% of its energy mix in 2018, and a target of 30% in 2036 was set. Despite this, during 2018–2019, Thailand experienced relative stagnation in terms of attracted investment. We propose five actions that can improve the attractiveness of Thailand’s investment climate for renewable energy in both the short and long term: set up a dedicated ministry for governing renewables; expand and improve the regulatory framework; capitalise on its peer-to-peer energy trading experience; simplify market entry for foreign investors; build capacity for renewable energy governance.

• Vakulchuk, Roman; Chan, Hoy-Yen; Kresnawan, Muhammad Rizki; Merdekawati, Monika; Øverland, Indra & Sagbakken, Haakon Fossum [Show all 9 contributors for this article] (2020). Singapore: How to Attract More Investment in Renewable Energy? ASEAN Centre for Energy (ACE). Policy Brief No 11.. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Singapore has limited renewable energy potential due to its small surface area and the limited space available. Solar power has the greatest potential. Given the country’s limited spare land, rooftops and vertical spaces on high-rise buildings are of particular importance. Singapore set a target of producing solar energy to cover 350,000 households in 2030 that would be equivalent to 4% of the country’s current electricity demand. In 2019, solar energy accounted for less than 1% of Singapore’s total energy mix. We propose four actions to improve the investment climate for renewable energy in Singapore: develop incentive and regulatory support mechanism; consolidate solar energy governance; mobilise equity investors and lenders; specialise in the long-distance trade of renewable energy, especially in the form of hydrogen.

• Vakulchuk, Roman; Chan, Hoy-Yen; Kresnawan, Muhammad Rizki; Merdekawati, Monika; Øverland, Indra & Sagbakken, Haakon Fossum [Show all 9 contributors for this article] (2020). The Philippines: How to Leapfrog from a Complicated Renewable Energy Sector to an Attractive One. ASEAN Centre for Energy (ACE). Policy Brief No 10.. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  The Philippines set the target of increasing the share of renewable energy in its energy mix from 16.9% in 2019 to 26.9% by 2030. This ambitious target requires significant additional investment in renewable energy. It has been estimated that the Philippines could attract USD 20 billion in renewable energy investment through auctions between 2020 and 2030. To achieve this, the investment climate for renewables needs to be improved. Over the last few years, other ASEAN countries such as Vietnam, Malaysia and Thailand have been viewed as more attractive markets by foreign investors. We propose five actions that can improve the attractiveness of Philippines’ investment climate for renewable energy and help it join the regional race for investment: prioritise renewables in the energy governance system; enforce existing regulatory and fiscal policies; raise the targets and develop an investment roadmap; facilitate market entry for renewable energy investors; build capacity for renewable energy governance.

• Vakulchuk, Roman; Chan, Hoy-Yen; Kresnawan, Muhammad Rizki; Merdekawati, Monika; Øverland, Indra & Sagbakken, Haakon Fossum [Show all 9 contributors for this article] (2020). Myanmar: How to Become an Attractive Destination for Renewable Energy Investment? ASEAN Centre for Energy (ACE). Policy Brief No 9.. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Myanmar is endowed with abundant renewable energy resources, and its solar potential is the greatest in the Greater Mekong Subregion – yet, this potential remains largely untapped. The country’s 50% electrification rate remains the lowest in ASEAN, and the government plans to electrify the entire country by 2030. The share of renewable energy in the energy mix is expected to rise from less than 1% in 2020 to 12% in 2025. In addition to expanding electricity access, renewable energy could also stimulate much-needed employment and economic growth in Myanmar. We propose five actions that can improve the investment climate in Myanmar for renewable energy investment: strengthen renewable energy governance; join IRENA and intensify capacity building; adopt a feed-in tariff or auction mechanism; build a regulatory framework for renewable energy; simplify the business environment for investors.

• Vakulchuk, Roman; Chan, Hoy-Yen; Kresnawan, Muhammad Rizki; Merdekawati, Monika; Øverland, Indra & Sagbakken, Haakon Fossum [Show all 9 contributors for this article] (2020). Malaysia: How to Scale Up Investment in Renewable Energy. ASEAN Centre for Energy (ACE). Policy Brief No 8.. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Malaysia set a target of 20% renewables in the energy mix by 2025, an 18% increase from the 2% it had in 2018. One of the planned measures is the development of large-scale solar power. To reach the target, it will be necessary to attract a total of USD 8 billion of renewable energy investment during this period. Considering the fact that Malaysia attracted only USD 2.5 billion from 2006 to 2018, the country will need to attract USD 1.3 billion on average every year from 2019. To achieve this, it will need to undertake serious reform measures to improve the investment climate for renewables and conditions for renewable energy deployment. Given the ever-increasing global competition for renewable energy investment, the rapid implementation of such reforms becomes an imperative. This in turn requires strong governance. We propose five actions that can improve the attractiveness of Malaysia’s investment climate for renewable energy to 2025 and beyond: reform energy governance in favour of renewable energy; ensure streamlined management of the regulatory framework for renewable energy; develop a framework for easier grid connection and use; enhance awareness-raising measures for investors; make market entry easy and attractive.

• Vakulchuk, Roman; Chan, Hoy-Yen; Kresnawan, Muhammad Rizki; Merdekawati, Monika; Øverland, Indra & Sagbakken, Haakon Fossum [Show all 9 contributors for this article] (2020). Lao PDR: How to Attract More Investment in Small-Scale Renewable Energy? ASEAN Centre for Energy (ACE). Policy Brief No 7.. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Lao PDR adopted the Renewable Energy Development Strategy in 2011 and set a target of 30% small-scale renewables in the energy mix by 2025. The country relies heavily on large hydropower in electricity production and is an attractive investment destination for hydropower. At the same time, Lao PDR has also significant small-scale hydro and solar power potential. We propose five actions that can improve the investment climate in Lao PDR for small-scale hydropower, solar and wind energy: establish an autonomous government agency for renewables; join IRENA and build capacity for renewable energy governance; adopt a feed-in tariff and build a robust regulatory framework; develop a roadmap for small-scale renewable energy; facilitate market entry for investors.

• Vakulchuk, Roman; Chan, Hoy-Yen; Kresnawan, Muhammad Rizki; Merdekawati, Monika; Øverland, Indra & Sagbakken, Haakon Fossum [Show all 9 contributors for this article] (2020). Cambodia: Five Actions to Improve the Business Climate for Renewable Energy Investment. ASEAN Centre for Energy (ACE). Policy Brief No 5.. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Cambodia has not attracted significant investment in renewable energy until mid-2020 and, unlike other ASEAN countries, has not set exact renewable energy targets. Despite this, the country is viewed as a model to learn from for other ASEAN countries implementing solar power auctions. In order to keep up this momentum and attract more investment, Cambodia needs to address a number of persistent gaps in its investment climate. We propose five actions that may have strong immediate benefits and make Cambodia’s business climate for renewable energy more attractive: prioritise renewables in the energy governance system; request support from IRENA for capacity building; adopt targets and develop a regulatory framework; enhance project bankability; improve market entry for foreign investors.

• Vakulchuk, Roman; Chan, Hoy-Yen; Kresnawan, Muhammad Rizki; Merdekawati, Monika; Øverland, Indra & Sagbakken, Haakon Fossum [Show all 9 contributors for this article] (2020). Indonesia: How to Boost Investment in Renewable Energy. ASEAN Centre for Energy (ACE). Policy Brief No 6.. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Indonesia, the largest country in Southeast Asia, has considerable renewable energy potential. However, this potential remains largely underexploited. Fossil fuel subsidies are a major obstacle to the deployment of renewable energy on a large scale. Investment in renewable energy is limited compared to some regional peers. For instance, Vietnam attracted USD 5.2 billion of investment in renewables in 2018, while Indonesia drew only USD 0.8 billion. We propose six actions that could help Indonesia accelerate the expansion of renewables: remove subsidies for fossil fuels; establish a ministry of renewable energy; prioritise renewables in the regulatory framework; improve and streamline grid management; mobilise domestic banks to support renewable energy; prioritise market entry for investors.

• Vakulchuk, Roman; Chan, Hoy-Yen; Kresnawan, Muhammad Rizki; Merdekawati, Monika; Øverland, Indra & Sagbakken, Haakon Fossum [Show all 9 contributors for this article] (2020). Brunei Darussalam: How to Build an Investment Climate for Renewable Energy? ASEAN Centre for Energy (ACE). Policy Brief No 4.. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Brunei Darussalam has yet to make major progress in renewable energy and become an attractive destination for investors. Only 0.05% of Brunei’s electricity came from renewable energy sources, while 99.95% was based on fossil fuels. In 2014, the country set a renewable energy target of 10% in the power generation mix by 2035. To reach the target, it needs to increase the share of renewables by 0.66% every year from 2020 to 2035. The country still needs to adopt a regulatory regime to scale up the development of renewable energy, particularly solar energy, which is more abundant than wind energy. We propose five actions to build the investment climate for renewable energy in Brunei Darussalam: prioritise renewable energy in the governance system; adopt and implement key legislation; mobilise domestic investors; improve market entry for foreign investors; join IRENA and expand capacity building.

• Vakulchuk, Roman; Øverland, Indra; Aminjonov, Farkhod; Abylkasymova, Alina; Eshchanov, Bahtiyor & Moldokanov, Daniyar (2019). BRI in Central Asia: People-to-People Projects. OSCE Academy / NUPI. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Along with financing hard infrastructure projects, Beijing also promotes soft power projects in the form of people-to-people initiatives. However, such projects are low priority within the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)in Central Asia. The Confucius Institutes, which appear to be an important vehicle for Chinese soft power in the region, are not directly linked to BRI and were launched before and independently of BRI.

• Aminjonov, Farkhod; Abylkasymova, Alina; Aimée, Anna; Eshchanov, Bahtiyor; Moldokanov, Daniyar & Øverland, Indra [Show all 7 contributors for this article] (2019). BRI in Central Asia: Agriculture and Food Projects. OSCE Academy / NUPI. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  This data article looks at Chinese investment in agriculture and food production in Central Asia. It shows that the agricultural sector projects have low priority within the Belt and Road Initiative. Kazakhstan is the biggest recipient of Chinese investment in agriculture and food projects in Central Asia.

• Aminjonov, Farkhod; Abylkasymova, Alina; Aimée, Anna; Eshchanov, Bahtiyor; Moldokanov, Daniyar & Øverland, Indra [Show all 7 contributors for this article] (2019). BRI in Central Asia: Finance and IT Projects. OSCE Academy / NUPI. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  China and its Central Asian counterparts pursue finance and IT projects for both commercial and strategic reasons. As this data article shows, transparency is limited and exact information on the size of their investments is only partly available. In the financial sector, China cooperates most closely with Kazakhstan among the Central Asian countries.

• Aminjonov, Farkhod; Abylkasymova, Alina; Aimée, Anna; Eshchanov, Bahtiyor; Moldokanov, Daniyar & Øverland, Indra [Show all 7 contributors for this article] (2019). BRI in Central Asia: Industrial Projects. OSCE Academy / NUPI. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  China’s investment in the industrial sectors of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan has been on the rise since the 1990s. However, this data article shows the recent expansion of Chinese investment also in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. Thus, China has expanded its engagement in the development of local industries in larger countries as well. The projects in Kazakhstan are the largest in terms of the number and size of investments. China has substantially increased the number of industrial projects in Uzbekistan, yet the evidence shows that the costs of the projects are small in scale.

• Aminjonov, Farkhod; Abylkasymova, Alina; Aimée, Anna; Eshchanov, Bahtiyor; Moldokanov, Daniyar & Øverland, Indra [Show all 7 contributors for this article] (2019). BRI in Central Asia: Mineral and Petroleum Exploration, Extraction and Processing Projects. OSCE Academy / NUPI. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Mineral resources is the sector that receives most Chinese investment in Central Asia. China and its Central Asian partners pursue both strategic and commercial goals by promoting projects in the minerals sector. Kazakhstan hosts the largest number of projects and receives the largest amount of Chinese investment. The second largest recipient of financing is Turkmenistan, where several big projects are implemented.

• Aminjonov, Farkhod; Abylkasymova, Alina; Aimée, Anna; Eshchanov, Bahtiyor; Moldokanov, Daniyar & Øverland, Indra [Show all 7 contributors for this article] (2019). BRI in Central Asia: Energy Connectivity Projects. OSCE Academy / NUPI. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  One of the strategic objectives of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in Central Asia is to provide China with alternative import/export and energy supply routes. This data article shows that the presentation and coverage of BRI projects varies considerably from country to country. The largest number of BRI projects in Central Asia are implemented in Kazakhstan and are in the oil and gas sector. By contrast, Turkmenistan is implementing only a few Chinese energy projects, though they are large-scale and its sum of investment is the second-largest of the Central Asian states.

• Vakulchuk, Roman; Øverland, Indra; Aminjonov, Farkhod; Abylkasymova, Alina; Eshchanov, Bahtiyor & Moldokanov, Daniyar (2019). BRI in Central Asia: Rail and Road Connectivity Projects. OSCE Academy / NUPI. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  This data article shows that most of the rail and road projects in which the Chinese are involved in Central Asia are implemented within the territories of individual countries and thus are still poorly linked with each other. However, these internal transport routes are expected to eventually form the basis of a new cross-regional network within the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Smaller scale road construction and rehabilitation projects create linkages connecting China across Central Asia to South Asia, Turkey, Europe, and the Middle East.

• Vakulchuk, Roman; Øverland, Indra; Aminjonov, Farkhod; Abylkasymova, Alina; Eshchanov, Bahtiyor & Moldokanov, Daniyar (2019). BRI in Central Asia: Overview of Chinese Projects. OSCE Academy / NUPI. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  This data article summarises the analysis of 261 Chinese projects in Central Asia. The findings indicate that trade promotion and industrial development are the sectors where there is most BRI-related activity in Central Asia. The total number of projects in these areas approximates the number of projects in all other areas combined. These sectors also receive most investment. In terms of the number of implemented projects, roads is the second key sector, followed by energy. However, due to larger project sizes, energy receives more funds than roads. The majority of Chinese projects in Central Asia are bilateral.

• Vakulchuk, Roman; Øverland, Indra; Eshchanov, Bahtiyor; Abylkasymova, Alina; Aminjonov, Farkhod & Moldokanov, Daniyar (2019). Hydropower Potential of the Central Asian Countries. OSCE Academy / NUPI. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  This data article surveys the hydropower potential of the five Central Asian countries: Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. The dataset presents the theoretical hydropower supply capacity of all the river basins of Central Asia. It was prepared using data from national and international sources, and it provides information on installed small and medium hydropower capacities and planned projects in the above-mentioned countries.

• Vakulchuk, Roman; Øverland, Indra; Eshchanov, Bahtiyor; Abylkasymova, Alina; Aminjonov, Farkhod & Moldokanov, Daniyar (2019). Solar Power Potential of the Central Asian Countries. OSCE Academy / NUPI. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  This data compilation surveys the solar energy potential of the five Central Asian countries: Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. It also provides data on installed and planned solar power capacity in these countries.

• Vakulchuk, Roman; Øverland, Indra; Eshchanov, Bahtiyor; Abylkasymova, Alina; Aminjonov, Farkhod & Moldokanov, Daniyar (2019). Wind Power Potential of the Central Asian Countries. OSCE Academy / NUPI. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  This data article surveys the wind energy potential of the five Central Asian countries; Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. The dataset presents the theoretical wind power supply capacity in the region as well as existing wind power installations.

• Vakulchuk, Roman; Øverland, Indra; Eshchanov, Bahtiyor; Abylkasymova, Alina; Aminjonov, Farkhod & Moldokanov, Daniyar (2019). Renewable Energy Policies of the Central Asian Countries. OSCE Academy / NUPI. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  This data article surveys the government policies in support of renewable energy in the five Central Asian republics: Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. It begins by providing general information and key energy statistics for these countries. It then presents comparative data on their regulatory policies, fiscal incentives, and public financing policies. The data were collected from government institutions of the Central Asian states, official national statistics, media reports, and international organizations.

• Stokke, Kristian; Vakulchuk, Roman & Øverland, Indra (2018). Myanmar: A Political Economy Analysis. Norsk utenrikspolitisk institutt. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Myanmar may for a long time remain in a transitional state with an uncertain future. After a series of political and economic liberalization reforms from 2011 onwards, Myanmar’s political trajectory remains open-ended, although the most plausible scenario remains a continued slow democratization process. The democratic opening has been driven largely by the interest of the military rulers in changing Myanmar’s relations with Western states and thereby gaining leverage vis-à-vis China. Continued military influence, persistent capacity problems in political parties and parliamentary politics, weak channels of political representation and limited administrative capacity give rise to critical questions about the substance of democratization and economic development in Myanmar. The country’s informal economy is one of the largest in the world and is upheld by informal elite pacts that were formed in the military era, often involving high-ranking officers and crony companies. Along with a high level of corruption and lack of redistributive mechanisms the continuing cronyism hinders inclusive growth. If these economic structures persist, social and ethnic conflicts may intensify and progress towards further democratization stall. Despite this, foreign direct investments in resource extraction and other sectors have been on the rise since 2011 and are likely to continue. Myanmar is also ranked as the world’s second-most vulnerable country to climate change. The government needs a better understanding of climate change and its effects – both its direct impacts on Myanmar and its indirect impacts via neighbouring countries such as Bangladesh. As Myanmar remains at a crossroads, smart external assistance may have greater long-term impact in Myanmar than in other recipient countries where the situation is less volatile. However, donors may also become increasingly frustrated and reduce their assistance because of the ongoing Rohingya crisis and because of the limited local capacity to absorb international assistance.

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